Manny Machado, Pete Alonso, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Prop Bets to Target Tonight

The MLB slate is stacked with power threats tonight, and three of the game’s premier sluggers stand out as prime targets for hitter props. San Diego’s left side of the infield travels to loanDepot Park to face a Miami pitching staff that’s given up its share of long balls this season, while Pete Alonso gets a golden opportunity against a Dodgers staff that hasn’t been able to slow him down since his summer surge began.

All three of these bats have been trending in exactly the right direction over the last month, and the underlying numbers back up more than just gut instinct here. Let’s break down why Manny Machado, Pete Alonso, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the plays to build around today.

Manny Machado’s Power Surge Meets a Leaky Marlins Staff

Manny Machado (#13, SD) has been one of the hottest bats in baseball over the last two weeks, batting .400 with a .640 slugging mark and 2 home runs over his last seven games, and he’s carried that into a .291 average with 5 homers over his last 15. On the season, Machado is sitting at 19 home runs and 55 RBI with an OPS pushing north of .700 as he heats up at exactly the right time.

Miami’s pitching staff has been vulnerable to right-handed power all year, and Machado gets a fresh look at a Marlins rotation on the road at loanDepot Park. With his exit velocity and hard-hit numbers trending up over the last month, both his HR and RBI props carry real value tonight. A team that’s allowed contact-heavy at-bats to turn into extra bases all season is exactly the matchup a locked-in Machado wants.

The volume here matters too — Machado has driven in a run in three of his last five games, and with San Diego’s lineup depth in front of him, the RBI opportunities should keep coming.

Pete Alonso’s Summer Surge Continues Against a Beatable Arm

Pete Alonso (#20, NYM) has quietly turned his season around since the calendar flipped to June. Since the start of that month, the Polar Bear has slashed .275/.382/.533 with 9 home runs and 26 RBI over 33 games — a huge step up from his slower start. He sits at 20 home runs on the year, hitting his most recent shot just last week, and Statcast data shows his barrel rate and hard-hit rate both climbing over that same stretch.

Facing a Dodgers pitching staff at home, Alonso’s anytime home run prop stands out as a value play. Los Angeles has had trouble consistently missing bats against power-first right-handed hitters, and Alonso has feasted on mistakes left over the plate all summer. He’s been unafraid to work counts and hunt his pitch, and when he connects, the ball travels — his average exit velocity on home runs remains among the best marks at his position.

Given the park factors and a Dodgers staff that’s had its share of long-ball trouble this year, Alonso’s anytime HR prop is squarely in play.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Cashing in Against a Miami Arm He’s Owned

Fernando Tatis Jr. (#23, SD) has found his power stroke over the past month after a slow start to the year, homering in back-to-back games as recently as last week and posting three home runs in a single week stretch. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 95th percentile league-wide in 2026, a clear sign the underlying contact quality has been elite even during stretches where the results hadn’t shown up yet.

Tatis’s anytime home run prop is priced at plus money in this Marlins matchup, and the value jumps when paired with his Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI combo prop, sitting at +525. As the Padres’ leadoff man, Tatis gets maximum plate appearances, and against a Miami staff that’s surrendered plenty of hard contact to right-handed bats, both the counting-stat prop and the homer prop line up well. San Diego’s offense figures to see plenty of chances on the bases against Miami, and Tatis is squarely in position to capitalize as the table-setter.

With the combined value on the anytime homer and the hits/runs/RBI prop, Tatis offers one of the better risk-reward plays on the board tonight — best paired with a look at the DraftKings promo code for anyone building this into a same-game combo.

Lock These In

All three bats check every box: recent form, favorable matchups, and real value at the odds available tonight. This is as clean a trio of prop plays as the slate offers.

• Manny Machado Over RBI/HR props (facing Miami)
• Pete Alonso anytime home run (+310 range vs. Dodgers pitching)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+525) and anytime HR value

Three hitters trending in the right direction, three matchups that play to their strengths — this is the kind of alignment that makes for a strong props card.