3 MLB Home Run and Total Bases Props to Back on July 22

The long ball is the play tonight, and the numbers back it up all across the board. Between a Coors Field slugger on a historic power pace, a Phillies masher who can’t stop running into fastballs, and the best right-handed bat in baseball settling into another total-bases mismatch, three of tonight’s biggest offensive stars are lined up in spots that scream value. Books have priced all three fairly, but a deeper look at the underlying rates says the market may still be underselling how often these guys are doing damage right now.

Here’s why each of these three bets is worth a real look before first pitch.

Hunter Goodman Cashes at Coors Field Again

Hunter Goodman has quietly turned into one of the most dangerous power bats in the National League, and he gets to do his work in the best home run environment in the sport. Through 94 games this season, Goodman has already launched 31 home runs — a homer in 25.5% of his games played, an absurd rate for anyone not named Judge or Ohtani. His HR prop sits at +176 tonight, essentially betting the board thinks he clears that 25.5% baseline, and recent form says he’s trending well above it.

Goodman is red-hot right now, posting a 1.875 OPS over his last seven days — a number that borders on video-game numbers for any hitter, let alone a catcher/first baseman still just scratching the surface of his prime. Add in Coors Field’s notoriously thin air and forgiving power factor, plus a matchup against a Washington pitching staff that’s given up plenty of hard contact all year, and the environment is stacked in his favor. A hot bat in a hot-air ballpark at +176 is the kind of number sharp bettors circle immediately.

Kyle Schwarber Keeps Hunting Fastballs

Kyle Schwarber doesn’t need much of an introduction at this point — he’s on pace for one of the great power seasons in recent Phillies history, sitting at 33 home runs in just 98 games (a 28.6% homer rate per game). His HR prop tonight is priced at +176, the same number as Goodman, and the case for him is arguably even stronger given who’s on the mound.

Schwarber has been an absolute problem against left-handed pitching all season, running a .994 OPS against lefties — a number that should make any opposing bullpen nervous the moment a southpaw enters the game. Philadelphia’s home park also plays with a 1.1 home run park factor, a modest but real boost for a lefty pull-hitter with as much raw power as Schwarber. Between the split, the park, and a swing that’s produced eight-plus barreled balls a week all season, +176 undersells how live his bat has been.

Yordan Alvarez Is a Total-Bases Machine

If there’s a hitter in baseball who makes total-bases props look like a formality, it’s Yordan Alvarez. The Astros’ DH is running a .326/.435/.649 slash line with 33 home runs on the year, and his numbers against right-handed pitching are downright absurd — a 1.131 OPS that ranks near the top of all of MLB. Alvarez has also been scorching over the last week, posting a 1.136 OPS in his last seven days, a stretch that includes multiple multi-hit, multi-extra-base-hit performances.

The Over 1.5 Total Bases number reflects just how easily Alvarez clears two bases on a given night — a single double or home run gets there instantly, and he’s been doing exactly that at an elite clip all season. Against a Miami pitching staff that has to be careful with every pitch it throws him, betting the total-bases over is less a leap of faith and more a bet on Alvarez simply being himself.

Lock These In

All three of tonight’s plays lean on the same theme — established, top-tier power hitters riding hot recent form into favorable matchups, with odds that don’t fully account for how often they’ve been doing exactly this. For bettors looking to build a props parlay or place these individually, tonight’s board offers plenty of value at the top of the lineup. Anyone shopping lines across sportsbooks before placing a bet should check the latest DraftKings promo code for potential boosted odds on player props like these.

• Hunter Goodman OVER Yes Home Run (+176)
• Kyle Schwarber OVER Yes Home Run (+176)
• Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Three of the best power bats in the sport, three spots that favor them — this is the kind of slate where letting the stats do the talking pays off.