Cardinals vs. Angels Prediction, Odds & Best Bets — MLB July 20
St. Louis heads to Angel Stadium as road underdogs, but Jordan Walker's bat and a favorable pitching matchup make the Cardinals moneyline the value play against a fading Angels club.
The Cardinals are clinging to a distant Wild Card dream and the Angels are just trying to avoid triple-digit losses, but that gap on paper hasn’t stopped Los Angeles from opening as a moneyline favorite at home.
Quick take:
- Pick: Cardinals +106 on the moneyline
- Why: St. Louis gets the far better starter matchup and has actually hit better on the road than at home this year
- The number to watch: Jordan Walker’s .526 slugging mark, tops among regulars in this series
First pitch from Angel Stadium is set for 10:10 p.m. ET Monday, and this series opener has some real tension buried under the standings. St. Louis sits at 51-46, 9.5 games back but still mixing in enough good stretches to matter, while the Angels have crumbled to 38-61 and dropped eight of their last ten. The market, though, still has Los Angeles as a slight home favorite — a gap that looks more like ballpark and bullpen noise than a real read on which team is playing better baseball right now.
Why the Market Still Likes the Home Team
Los Angeles opened as the moneyline favorite at -120, with St. Louis getting +106 as the road side. The total sits at 8.5 (over -120) to 9.0 (under -125) depending on the book, and the run line has the Angels giving up a run and a half at +164 while the Cardinals lay the same number at -195. That’s a fairly aggressive number for a team that just got shut out 7-0 by Detroit two nights ago and has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last ten games.
The Numbers Side by Side
| Cardinals | Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 51-46 | 38-61 |
| Last 10 games | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Probable starter ERA | Kyle Leahy, 3.73 | José Soriano, 3.49 |
| Team AVG, last 10 | — | .252 |
Leahy vs. Soriano Is Closer Than the Odds Suggest
Kyle Leahy takes the ball for St. Louis carrying a 7-4 record, 3.73 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across 89.1 innings, with 75 strikeouts against 33 walks. José Soriano counters for the Angels at 8-6, a sharper 3.49 ERA and a tighter 1.29 WHIP over 111 innings, with 115 strikeouts. Soriano’s the better pitcher on the stat sheet, and that’s a real edge for Los Angeles — but it’s not the kind of gap that should make the Angels a moneyline favorite against a lineup that’s been getting production up and down the order.
Jordan Walker has quietly turned into the most dangerous bat on either roster. He’s hitting .293 with 22 home runs, 75 RBI and a .526 slugging percentage, numbers that dwarf anything Los Angeles is trotting out nightly. Zach Neto has 19 homers and 45 RBI for the Angels but is hitting just .235, and Jo Adell’s .237 average with 13 homers reflects a lineup that’s more swing-and-miss power than consistent contact right now.
The Angels have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last ten games.
Other Game Picks
- Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction: Braxton Ashcraft’s Breakout Season Meets a Shaky Yankees Rotation Spot
- Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Payton Tolle’s Rookie Poise Gives Boston the Edge at Fenway
- Marlins vs. Astros Prediction: Ronel Blanco’s Tommy John Return Adds Uncertainty in Houston
- Padres vs. Braves Prediction: Elder’s Consistency Meets Sears’ Uncertain Return in Atlanta
- Giants vs. Royals Prediction: Wacha’s Bigger Workload Gives Kansas City the Edge
- Nationals vs. Rockies Prediction: Alvarez’s Edge Over Freeland Meets Coors Field Chaos
That’s the crux of this pick. Los Angeles has flashes — a 13-1 blowout of Texas on July 8 shows the ceiling is there — but the floor has been ugly, including consecutive losses to Detroit by a combined 8-3 margin over the weekend. Mike Trout has actually been hot lately, hitting .286 with three homers over his last nine games, but he can’t carry an offense that’s batted .252 as a team over its last ten outings.
Nolan Schanuel has been one of the few steady presences in that lineup, hitting .273 with a .345 on-base percentage, but even his contact-first approach hasn’t been enough to offset a rotation and bullpen that keep bleeding runs late. St. Louis, by contrast, gets a boost from injuries elsewhere on the roster resolving soon — Ramon Urias is on track to return around July 24 — while the Angels are still without both Travis d’Arnaud and reliever Ben Joyce for the foreseeable future, thinning out an already shallow bench.
The bullpen math also favors St. Louis in a game expected to stay close into the middle innings. Soriano has been durable, but Los Angeles’ relief corps has been stretched thin during this stretch of one-run losses, and that fatigue tends to show up in the sixth and seventh innings against a Cardinals lineup that has shown it can grind out at-bats.
Prediction and Best Bet
St. Louis isn’t a great team, but it’s a materially better team than the one it’s facing Monday night, and Leahy doesn’t need to outduel Soriano — he just needs to keep the Angels’ shallow lineup in check long enough for Walker and company to do damage. The Cardinals also happen to be strong road bettors this season, going 25-20 away from Busch Stadium, while the Angels have shown they can be had at home against a lineup with actual thump in it.
The pick:
- Prediction: Cardinals 6, Angels 3
- Best Bet: Cardinals on the moneyline
Getting plus money on the better all-around roster in a pitching matchup this close is exactly the kind of value that makes this an easy lean toward St. Louis. For bettors comparing lines before first pitch, checking the DraftKings Promo Code page is worth a look, since number movement on divisional-gap games like this can vary by book.