Dodgers vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bets — Yamamoto Faces Shorthanded Bronx Lineup
The Dodgers and Yankees close out their Bronx series Sunday with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound against a Yankees lineup missing Aaron Judge. Full odds, stats and best bet inside.
The Dodgers already delivered the signature moment of this Bronx reunion, and now they get a chance to close it out on the mound with their best arm on turn.
Quick take:
- Pick: Dodgers on the moneyline
- Why: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been the better pitcher all year, and the Yankees are without Aaron Judge in the middle of their order
- The number to watch: 2.85 ERA for Yamamoto against a Yankees lineup missing its best hitter
This is the first time the Dodgers and Yankees have played at Yankee Stadium since Los Angeles beat New York in the 2024 World Series, and the rubber match of this three-game set carries a little extra juice because of it. Max Muncy’s two-run homer off Gerrit Cole in the seventh inning won Friday’s opener 2-1, and while New York squared the series in Game 2, the Dodgers (62-36) arrive Sunday still sitting atop the NL West with a one-game winning streak. The Yankees (54-43) are 2.0 games back in the AL East and enter having dropped their last game.
What the Market Is Saying About This Rubber Match
Books have this closer than the pitching matchup suggests. FanDuel had the Dodgers at -112 to the Yankees’ -104 earlier in the week, while FOX Sports shows Los Angeles as a modest -120 favorite with New York at -101, and the run line sits at Dodgers -1.5 (+139) against Yankees +1.5 (-165) — meaning the market expects a close, low-margin game rather than a blowout in either direction. The total is set at 7.5 runs, a number that leans toward the under given both bullpens’ recent form. Bettors shopping for the best number on this one should check a DraftKings promo code before locking in, since the run line offers more value than the moneyline for bettors who trust Yamamoto to keep the Dodgers in front outright rather than needing garbage-time runs to cover a bigger number.
The Numbers Side by Side
| Dodgers | Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-36 (1st, NL West) | 54-43 (2nd, AL East, 2.0 GB) |
| Last 10 games | 5-5, W1 | 5-5, L1 |
| Probable starter ERA | Yamamoto: 2.85 (9-6) | Schlittler: 2.05 (9-5) |
| Head-to-head, last 10 meetings | 7-3 (70%) | 3-7 (30%) |
Yamamoto’s Edge and the Judge-Sized Hole in New York’s Lineup
Cam Schlittler’s 2.05 ERA is the headline number for New York, and it’s legitimate — he’s been one of the better surprises in the American League this season. But Yoshinobu Yamamoto brings a track record of exactly this kind of moment, and the gap closes fast when you account for who’s missing from the Yankees’ order. Aaron Judge, New York’s best hitter by a wide margin, went back on the 60-day injured list Saturday with a stress fracture in his right rib and isn’t expected back until at least early August. That leaves Ben Rice (.282/.373/.601, 29 home runs) and Paul Goldschmidt (.255/.316/.486, 15 home runs) to carry the middle of the lineup without their MVP-caliber presence behind them.
The Dodgers have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two franchises, a 70% clip that predates this series and lines up with what happened in the Bronx on Friday.
Los Angeles isn’t fully healthy either — Will Smith, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Edwin Diaz are all out — but the lineup in front of Yamamoto doesn’t need to force much. Shohei Ohtani is hitting .289/.400/.543 with 22 home runs, and Freddie Freeman is right behind him at .287/.371/.482 with 15 of his own. Muncy’s Game 1 homer is fresh evidence that even the middle of this order can change a game in one swing against a stacked New York bullpen. A team built to grind late innings, like the Dodgers have all year at 31-19 in one-run games territory, is exactly the kind of opponent that makes a shorthanded Yankees lineup work overtime just to stay level.
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Prediction and Best Bet
Yamamoto goes deep enough to keep this a two-bullpen game by the seventh, and the Dodgers’ lineup finds enough against Schlittler to make Judge’s absence matter in the final score. Expect a tight, low-scoring finish that breaks the Dodgers’ way, closing the series the same way it opened.
| Sat, Sep 12 • 1:36 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Mets |  +1.5 (-143) |  +158 |  O 8.5 (106) |
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (114) |  -177 | U 8 (-106) |
The pick:
- Prediction: Dodgers 4, Yankees 2
- Best Bet: Dodgers on the run line (-1.5)
Between Yamamoto’s edge on the mound and Judge’s absence in the middle of New York’s order, Los Angeles has the tools to take this series outright, not just win it on paper.