Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction: NL Central Rivals Battle at Wrigley Field
St. Louis and Chicago are separated by half a game in a tight NL Central race. Here's our pick for Monday's series finale.
Wrigley Field hosts a genuine NL Central scrap on Monday afternoon as the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs meet for the seventh time this season with barely half a game separating them in the standings. Chicago sits at 49-40, second in the division and six games back of Milwaukee, while St. Louis is right behind at 47-39, half a game back of the Cubs for that second wild-card-adjacent perch. Both clubs know every game against each other carries extra weight given how tight this race has become, and Monday’s series finale is no exception.
The season series has been a genuine back-and-forth. St. Louis won the most recent meeting 3-0 on Saturday behind a strong start, continuing to chip away after the Cubs had controlled the head-to-head series earlier in the year. The Cardinals have actually turned the tables on the season series overall, and that history adds an extra layer of intrigue to a division race that’s shaping up to be one of the more entertaining storylines in the National League this summer.
A Pitching-Driven Line in a Hitter’s Park
Chicago opened as a healthy home favorite at -157, with St. Louis going off around +130, and the total sitting at 8 runs. That’s a notably modest total for Wrigley Field in July, especially with both lineups capable of scoring in bunches, but it reflects real respect for both rotations. Anyone shopping lines on this one should check a BetMGM promo code before betting the total. The Cubs have gotten quality innings all year even amid a rash of pitching injuries, and the Cardinals’ rotation has quietly stabilized as the summer has worn on.
Injuries are a major subplot on the Chicago side. The Cubs are dealing with a mountain of pitching attrition, including Jameson Taillon (hamstring), Justin Steele (elbow, 60-day IL), Cade Horton (forearm, 60-day IL), Porter Hodge (elbow, 60-day IL) and several relievers in Ethan Roberts, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton and Daniel Palencia all sidelined. That’s an extraordinary amount of pitching depth being tested at once, and it’s forced Chicago to lean harder on its position-player talent to carry the load. St. Louis, by comparison, is relatively healthy, with only Dustin May (day-to-day, ankle) and Ramon Urias (60-day IL, elbow) on the shelf. New bettors can also weigh a Caesars Sportsbook promo code for this NL Central clash.
Swanson, Crow-Armstrong and Burleson Carrying the Load
Chicago shortstop Dansby Swanson has been a steady force in the middle of the Cubs’ order all season, sitting on 16 home runs and 57 RBI, and he’s the kind of hitter who can change a game with one swing against a Cardinals staff trying to keep the ball in the yard. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been just as important, hitting .287 with 19 home runs, and right fielder Seiya Suzuki has been especially hot lately, going 12-for-42 with two doubles and three home runs over his last 10 games. That trio gives Chicago length in the lineup that’s hard to pitch around for a full game.
St. Louis counters with its own thump. First baseman Alec Burleson, wearing No. 41, has been one of the more productive corner bats in the National League this year, sitting on 20 doubles and 14 home runs while providing steady lineup protection. Outfielder Jordan Walker has quietly put together a strong season as well, hitting .291 with 19 home runs and 63 RBI, giving the Cardinals real thump of their own even without the star power the Cubs bring to the middle of their order.
Over their last 10 games, Chicago is 8-2 while hitting .253 with a 4.95 ERA, outscoring opponents by 23 runs in that stretch — a sign the Cubs have found their groove even with the pitching injuries piling up. St. Louis has gone 5-5 over its last 10, hitting .239 with a 3.44 ERA, still finding ways to win low-scoring games behind timely pitching. Both clubs have shown the ability to grind out wins in different ways, which is part of what makes this division race so hard to call from week to week. Bettors tracking value on this one can use an Expected Value (EV) Calculator to compare prices across books.
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Prediction and Best Bet
The Cubs’ offensive depth, led by Swanson and a red-hot Suzuki, gives them the edge in a game where both bullpens are worth watching closely given Chicago’s pitching injuries. St. Louis has the recent head-to-head success and enough pop from Burleson and Walker to keep this one interesting, but Chicago’s lineup should be able to do enough damage at home to escape with the win in a game that could easily go either way late.
- Prediction: Cubs 5, Cardinals 4
- Best Bet: Cubs on the moneyline
Chicago’s lineup depth and home-field advantage make the Cubs the safer side in a game that projects to be closer than the moneyline suggests, especially with St. Louis still finding its footing against a Cubs pitching staff that has managed to hold the line despite significant attrition.