NL Rookie of the Year Odds: JJ Wetherholt Is Running Away With It

JJ Wetherholt did not ease his way into a major league career. The 23-year-old from West Virginia stepped into the Cardinals’ leadoff spot on Opening Day and announced his arrival the only way that truly makes a statement: he hit a solo home run off Drew Rasmussen in his very first at-bat. That was the beginning of something that has not stopped.

Now, through 57 games in the National League, Wetherholt is the clear NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner. The market agrees. His odds currently sit at +120 to +135, reflecting a consensus view that no one has done more to separate themselves in the NL rookie class. When a 23-year-old second baseman — selected seventh overall in the 2024 draft out of West Virginia — steps into the No. 1 spot in a Major League lineup and holds it with this kind of composure, the betting market tends to get it right pretty quickly.

What the Numbers Actually Show

The surface stats are good. Wetherholt is hitting .245 with a .356 on-base percentage, a .400 slugging mark, and a .756 OPS. He has nine home runs, 25 RBI, seven stolen bases, and 39 runs scored across 57 games. For a leadoff hitter, the run-scoring and on-base numbers matter more than the batting average, and both are doing real work.

But the Statcast data is what separates the good from the exceptional, and Wetherholt’s quality-of-contact metrics are a step above what his slash line might suggest. His hard-hit rate sits at 48.6 percent — a mark that reflects consistent, authoritative contact. His barrel rate of 8.0 percent is above the MLB average of 7.6 percent, meaning he is generating elite exit velocity with regularity, not just on the occasional mistake pitch. His average exit velocity sits at 90.9 mph, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) checks in at .360.

That last number deserves a closer look. An xwOBA of .360 suggests his actual production has slightly underperformed what his contact quality should be producing — which means the underlying performance is even stronger than the current line implies. Players with that gap tend to see their surface numbers catch up as the season goes on. The Cardinals did not make a mistake putting him at the top of the order.

The Challenger: Sal Stewart

The only name in the NL race that has kept the market from pricing Wetherholt as a prohibitive favorite is Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds. Stewart sits at +200, which reflects genuine respect for what he could become over a full season. His projections are striking — a .259 batting average with 26 home runs and 88 RBI if he plays out the year at full production.

That power ceiling is the reason Stewart stays in the conversation. Twenty-six home runs from a rookie with corner infield eligibility is the kind of season that draws votes regardless of what else is happening in the league. Stewart is not running away from anyone at +200, but he is the reason Wetherholt is not yet at -200. The gap between first and second place in this race essentially comes down to whether Stewart can deliver the power output his projections suggest while Wetherholt continues to build his statistical resume through contact quality and on-base consistency.

The Long Shots Worth Watching

Nolan McLean of the New York Mets comes in at +550. As a starting pitcher, McLean faces the same structural disadvantage that all pitchers do in Rookie of the Year voting — fewer opportunities to accumulate visible counting stats. His full-season projection of 10 wins, 187 strikeouts, and a 3.81 ERA would represent a strong debut campaign, and pitchers have won the award. But in a year where the position player field is this competitive at the top, McLean likely needs an injury to one of the frontrunners and a second-half push to get into serious contention.

Konnor Griffin of the Pittsburgh Pirates sits at +650 to +700. His projected line — .263 average, 11 home runs, 57 RBI — is a solid, well-rounded rookie season, but it does not offer the ceiling that would make him a real threat to Wetherholt or Stewart unless significant things change. Griffin is a name to monitor if he heats up in the summer, but at current production levels, he is more of a background participant than a genuine challenger.

Why the Market Looks Right

The NL ROY market is not mispriced. Wetherholt at +120 is not a gift — the number reflects real respect for a player who has been one of the better rookies in baseball since April. What the odds do capture correctly is the gap between first and the rest. Stewart’s power projection keeps him close enough that Wetherholt is not priced as a runaway, and the field beyond Stewart is thin enough that the top two feel like the only real stories.

What makes this race genuinely interesting to watch going forward is whether Wetherholt’s underlying contact quality starts converting into bigger surface numbers, and whether Stewart stays healthy long enough to put up the home run totals that would tighten this race significantly. For now, the Cardinals’ leadoff man looks like the most complete and consistent rookie in the National League. The Statcast data suggests he has more upside ahead of him. That is a compelling combination for a race that still has months to play out. You can track how the odds shift on the DraftKings sportsbook and betmgm/”>BetMGM as the season progresses.