MLB Picks Thursday: Odds, Predictions, and 2 Player Props for May 15

Happy Thursday, fellow sports investors! Hump Day was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-2 to run our record to 71-65 on the young season. Let’s go on a run the rest of the month and get back on the positive side of the ledger.

The sides were good to us last night, as both the Blue Jays and the Yankees made late rallies to get us to the cash-out window. Winning both of those wagers was a good reminder of how important bullpens are in this modern era of Major League Baseball.

Unfortunately, the player props did not fare as well for us. Bailey Falter barely stayed under his strikeout number to get us our lone win in that department. Ryan Pepiot and Eduardo Rodriguez both failed to cash to turn a really good day into a modest 3-2 performance.

The K props have done well this season at 43-34 (+2.68), but everything else has brought down our record. Let’s build on yesterday’s performance with 2 more strikeout props for Thursday, May 15. Best of luck, my friends!

Chris Paddack Over 3.5 Ks (-145) (Fanatics)

MIN at BAL- 12:35 PM EDT

I get that Paddack isn’t the cream of the crop as far as strikeouts go, but this number is at least a full strikeout too low. Even though Paddack’s stuff is less than dynamic, he’s still got a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate against this Orioles roster. He’s had a lot of success against Tyler O’Neill, Jorge Mateo, and Ryan Mountcastle (6 combined Ks in only 10 at-bats).

Paddack doesn’t throw his fastball very hard (93.7 mph), but he does an excellent job of hitting his spots with that pitch. Though his slider and curve don’t break all that much, I love that his changeup is almost 10 mph slower than his fastball. He should be able to find at least 4 Ks in this early start time, especially since the O’s could be resting one or two usual starters.

The O’s have the 7th-highest K-rate in baseball over the last couple of weeks, and they have the 4th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season. Five of their hitters fan at least 24% of the time. It probably won’t be pretty, but look for Paddack to finish with around 5 strikeouts.

Nick Martinez Over 4.5 Ks (-130) (DraftKings)

CWS at CIN – 12:40 PM EDT

I’m glad that the Reds finally decided to take Martinez out of the bullpen and make him a part of their regular starting rotation. The 34-year-old righty isn’t known as a power pitcher, but he does a good job of keeping hitters guessing with off-speed stuff.

The White Sox are putting the ball in play a little bit more often than last season, but they still have the 5th-highest strikeout rate in MLB versus righties. Five of Chicago’s hitters fan more than 23.5% of the time.

Martinez’s median K number is 4.5 this season, but I adjusted that up to 5.5 in my project because of the White Sox’s inability to make consistent contact. Let’s hold our breath and play another Over.