In Game 5, the Yankees face a win-or-go-home situation as they turn to Gerrit Cole to keep their season alive against the Dodgers. After a tight 6-3 loss in extra innings during Game 1, New York will be looking to give Cole a little better run support this time.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers counter the Bronx Bombers with Jack Flaherty. The Blue Crew is aiming to continue their powerful postseason performance and seal the deal in New York.
The Yankees are slight favorites with win probabilities of 52%, backed by their record of 82 wins in 141 games as favorites this season. While they look great on paper, they’re hoping to shake off the first 3 games of the series as every game going forward is a do-or-die moment for them.
When favored by at least -145 on the moneyline, they have dominated with a 54-36 record, which means the bookmakers see them as having a 59.2% chance of victory based on these odds.
On the other hand, the Dodgers, who have a less favorable track record as the underdogs (7-14), have only a 44.8% implied win probability here — according to the moneyline.
Sure, this looks like the Yankees should have this game locked but if we’ve learned anything in this wild series is that anything is possible and the bookmakers have been swinging and missing as well.
The Yankees are relying heavily on Gerrit Cole, who has been solid in the postseason with a 2.82 ERA, allowing only 1 dinger in 22 ⅓ innings over 4 starts.
He was fairly effective in his Game 1 outing, giving up just 1 run in 6 innings. However, his offense couldn’t capitalize enough to get the win. This has been the story of the series, for the most part.
The Yankees, averaging 5 runs per game during the season, have only managed to score 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, which will be a focal point against the Dodgers’ offense. With their Game 4 blowout, it seems like the Yanks might just be finding their batting power again.
The Dodgers, however, are a powerhouse when it comes to run production on the road. They’ve led the league with an average of 5.6 runs per game in both the regular season and playoffs. The undisputed World Series MVP, Freddie Freeman, is responsible for a good amount of those runs.
They enter Game 5 with 27 home runs over 15 postseason games, making them dangerous even against elite pitching.
Jack Flaherty, who allowed just 2 runs over 5.1 innings in Game 1, will start for Los Angeles, though he’s had an inconsistent postseason, sporting a 4.26 ERA since joining the Dodgers. His ability to limit home runs has been shaky, as he’s giving up nearly 1.6 homers per nine innings.
The bullpen could play a significant role.
The Dodgers used many of their mid-relievers in Game 4, which could stretch their depth if Flaherty exits early. They have to keep in mind the potential Game 6 and 7 should it go that far; however, they do have a bit of rest in there.
They enter Game 5 with a 3.16 ERA this postseason in the bullpen, slightly better than their 3.53 regular-season ERA. On the other hand, the Yankees' bullpen has been relatively sharp, with a 2.70 ERA in the playoffs, showing improvement over their 3.62 regular-season mark.
The Yankees have the advantage here in bullpen depth, especially if Cole can pitch deep into the game. We’d like to see him go a solid 6-7 innings while limiting the Dodger's run production so their offense can keep up.
Expect both teams to play their top arms, but if the game goes late, New York could hold an edge.
The combination of Cole’s postseason consistency and the Yankees’ bullpen reliability should keep the Dodgers’ offense in check.
Although Los Angeles has the lineup to score big, and they do, Cole’s ability to avoid yard bombs and New York’s rested bullpen make us think this will be a low-scoring game.
Meanwhile, the Yankees’ offense has struggled to provide explosive run support (except for Game 5), keeping this game likely tight and favoring the under 8 runs.
BettorInsiders Prediction: Yankees 5, Dodgers 4 in a close win to keep the season alive for New York.
Best Bet: Bet the total under 8.