Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

As the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees gear up for the 2024 ALCS, this series is going to be a hard-fought battle between two iconic franchises. 

The Yankees come in as the slight favorites, not only with home-field advantage but also with a strong season behind them. 

On the other side of the field, the Guardians are riding high after a thrilling Game 5 victory over the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS with their dominant bullpen. 

Both teams had a week off after their Wild Card byes, and now they’ll face off for a chance at the World Series. Who will make it all the way?

Game 1 Odds and Key Matchups

In Game 1, the Yankees are currently favored at -164 on the moneyline, with the Guardians listed as +138 underdogs. 

The total runs over/under sits at 7.5, meaning that the bookmakers are thinking this will be a fairly tight contest. 

The Yankees are also favored on the run line at -1.5 (+132), which shows the challenges Cleveland will face going into Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound, who has been solid for most of the season. He posted a 16-9 record with a 3.96 ERA, and despite a shaky outing in the ALDS against Kansas City, Rodon has generally been a reliable option. His history against the Guardians is impressive, boasting an 8-5 record and a 2.81 ERA across multiple seasons. If Rodon finds his rhythm early, Cleveland’s lineup could be in for a long night. He’ll have to keep the runs off the board as long as he can because the Guardian bullpen will be lurking and waiting.

The Guardians will counter with Alex Cobb. Though Cobb missed much of the regular season due to an injury, he has been fairly effective when healthy. He finished the season with a 2.76 ERA and had a respectable performance in the ALDS. Despite losing to Detroit in Game 2, he’s shown he can handle the postseason stretch. Cleveland will need Cobb to be sharp from the start, especially against a Yankees lineup powered by the likes of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.

Guardians’ Path to Success

Cleveland’s bullpen has been its biggest weapon in the postseason. They’ll likely lean heavily on their relievers throughout this series. 

In their ALDS win over Detroit, the Guardians’ bullpen threw more innings than their starters, and with a deep bullpen featuring insane arms like Emmanuel Clase, they can keep games close even if their starters don’t go deep.

The challenge will be if they can maintain that success over a longer, seven-game series. If you think the relievers were tired after 5 games, imagine 7.

Offensively, Steven Kwan has been the heart of the Guardians' attack as he is a constant on the basepaths. He’s batting .524 in the postseason and was a powerhouse in Cleveland’s comeback against Detroit. The Guardians will need Kwan to stay hot if they hope to match the firepower of the Yankees, especially in the Bronx.

Yankees’ Edge

For the Yankees, it’s about the power they bring to the table. 

Juan Soto, who hit 41 home runs this season, continues to be a force in the playoffs. His three-hit performance against Kansas City in Game 1 of the ALDS was a reminder of just how dangerous he can be. 

Alongside Aaron Judge, who leads the Yankees in RBIs, this is one of the scariest lineups in the league.

Defensively, New York’s biggest advantage comes from their experience and depth in the rotation. 

Even if Rodon struggles, which we don’t think he will, the Yankees can turn to a bullpen that includes reliable arms like Michael King and Clay Holmes. The key will be shutting down Cleveland’s contact hitters like Kwan while taking advantage of their power at home.

Our Prediction and Best Bet

This series has all the makings of a classic, but we think the edge goes to the Yankees in Game 1. 

While Cleveland’s bullpen has been nothing shy of outstanding, the Guardians could be facing some fatigue after a grueling ALDS.

New York’s well-rested lineup and home-field advantage give them the upper hand, and with Carlos Rodon on the mound, expect the Yankees to pull through.

• Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+132). With New York’s power and Rodon’s past success against Cleveland, the Yankees are primed to win by more than a run in the opener.

• Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 3.