The Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets in the NLDS and we think it’s going to be a one-sided affair, but nonetheless exciting.
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Despite both teams sharing the NL East, this is their first-ever postseason meeting, adding just a bit more intrigue to an already heated rivalry.
The Phillies finished the season as the division winners, while the Mets are coming off a wild wild-card victory against the smoking-hot Brewers. Momentum will be a significant factor, and both teams are loaded with talent to make this a fairly competitive series.
We know you’re here for the NLDS prediction, but we’ve got a lot more to include game times, odds, and in-depth analysis.
With 5 games on the docket, there’s plenty of baseball in the coming week. Here’s how the Phillies and Mets schedule shakes out.
Game 1: Mets at Phillies, Saturday, Oct. 5, 4:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 2: Mets at Phillies, Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 3: Phillies at Mets, Tuesday, Oct. 8, Time TBD (FOX/FS1)
Game 4: Phillies at Mets, Wednesday, Oct. 9, Time TBD (FOX/FS1, if necessary)
Game 5: Mets at Phillies, Friday, Oct. 11, Time TBD (FOX/FS1, if necessary)
Plan on betting on the series? We are. Here’s the current Phillies vs. Mets odds—
Philadelphia Phillies: -185
New York Mets: +155
These odds reflect the Phillies' status as the clear favorites to win the series, with their dominant pitching and recent success in the regular season.
However, the Mets, who are riding a wave of momentum from their wild-card win, are very much alive in this contest despite having a +155.
When it comes to pitching, the Phillies boast one of the most dominant staffs in the league.
Led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, Philadelphia’s rotation is deep, talented, and battle-tested. Wheeler, who is in the running for the National League Cy Young Award, has been lights-out all season, and Nola is no stranger to postseason success after his strong showing in the 2023 playoffs.
Zack Wheeler. Wheeler's elite velocity and command make him a nightmare matchup for any team. He will get the ball in Game 1, looking to set the tone early for the Phillies. They’ll be looking to stymie some of that momentum the Mets have in their favor.
Aaron Nola. Nola has been a reliable postseason performer. While his ERA against the Mets isn’t the greatest, he is still a major threat in a best-of-five series.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez. Both pitchers round out a deep rotation for the Phillies. Sánchez’s changeup has baffled what seems like every hitter he has faced all season, while Suárez’s ability to mix five different pitches keeps batters off balance. These two are dominant when they’re in the zone.
The Phillies also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They feature key arms like Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and the emerging Orion Kerkering, whose sweeping slider has become a go-to pitch in high-leverage situations.
This group will make it tough for the Mets to come back if they fall behind.
The Mets’ pitching staff, while fairly decent, lacks the reliability of the Phillies. The Mets have done well to get the most out of veteran starters, but they don’t have the high-end talent that Philadelphia brings to the mound. They’re going to have to rely a lot more on how the Phillies batters are feeling.
Sean Manaea. Manaea reinvented himself after making adjustments to his arm slot, but he'll have his hands full against a powerful and intimidating Phillies lineup.
Luis Severino. Severino had a few flashes of brilliance this year, but he will need to be at his absolute best to counter Wheeler or Nola. We just don’t see that happening.
Jose Quintana: Quintana has been a steady presence in the rotation. However, he’ll face a tough test against a Phillies lineup that can get to left-handers.
The Mets’ bullpen, led by Edwin Díaz, is good but doesn’t quite match the Phillies in depth. Díaz is still an elite closer despite a bit of a down year, but the Mets will need him to be perfect in this series.
The Phillies’ offense is built on power and star power.
Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber headline a lineup that can hit the ball out of the park at any moment.
Schwarber, in particular, is a postseason threat with his ability to change a game with one swing. From his time on the Cubs to his stint with the Phillies, he went yard 20 times over 65 post-season games.
Harper, one of the most feared hitters in the game, has been clutch in October before. To top that off, Turner brings elite speed and contact ability to complement the power-heavy lineup.
On the other side, the Mets have been surprisingly potent down the stretch.
Francisco Lindor has been a steady force in the lineup, and Brandon Nimmo has excelled in getting on base and scoring runs with his .727 OPS.
The Mets' offense showed its versatility in the wild-card round against Atlanta, combining home run power with small ball to manufacture runs. They ranked sixth in the league in home runs with 207, just one spot ahead of the Phillies who had 198.
The Mets' lineup also features José Iglesias and Tyrone Taylor, two players capable of creating havoc on the basepaths. While the Phillies rely heavily on the long ball, the Mets can mix in a more varied offensive approach, using speed and timely hitting to generate offense.
At the NLDS level, it takes the whole team to advance. However, there are a few key areas we’d keep an eye on if you plan on betting on this series.
Phillies’ pitching dominance. Wheeler, Nola, and the Phillies’ bullpen will be the key to shutting down the Mets’ offense. If they can dominate on the mound, the Phillies should have the upper hand throughout the series.
Mets’ ability to hit Phillies’ starters. Historically, the Mets have had success against Wheeler and Nola, winning 12 of the 15 games started by the two aces over the past three years. If the Mets can continue this trend, they’ll have a chance to steal games in Philadelphia which will be an absolute must if they want to win the series.
Mets' momentum. The Mets are riding high after their dramatic wild-card victory. Who can blame them? The momentum is a powerful force in October. If they can carry that energy into Game 1, they could throw the Phillies off balance.
Phillies’ home-field advantage. Citizens Bank Park has been a fortress for the Phillies this season. They won 54 games at home, and their fans are among the loudest and most passionate in baseball. However, the Mets are a divisional opponent, which could neutralize some of the home-field edge. The Mets are 1-4 at Citizens Bank Park in 2024.
Timely hitting. In the postseason, it’s often not how many hits you get, but when you get them. Both teams will need their stars to step up in clutch situations. Harper, Schwarber, Lindor, and Nimmo will be under the spotlight; however, they’re used to it.
This series should be competitive, but the Phillies have too much firepower on the mound for the Mets to handle in a five-game series.
The Mets have a chance if they can steal a game in Philadelphia and take the series back to Citi Field, but the Phillies' rotation and bullpen are simply too deep. We simply don’t think that the Mets stand a chance.
Look for Wheeler and Nola to set the tone early, while Harper and Turner provide the offensive spark. The Mets may snag a game at home, but the Phillies' pitching staff will ultimately prove too much for New York to overcome. Philadelphia’s superior pitching depth and playoff experience give them the edge in this matchup.
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