The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series with vastly different paths to the postseason.
The Braves squeaked in as the final NL team after battling injuries all year, while the Padres entered the playoffs without a doubt after riding a second-half surge. The winner will move on to face the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
San Diego has home-field advantage and a deep pitching staff, while Atlanta is hoping their postseason experience can help them overcome their current struggles. Spoiler — it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Braves.
We all love watching the games, so here are the game times for the series—
Game 1. Braves at Padres, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 8:38 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2. Braves at Padres, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 8:38 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 3 (if necessary). Braves at Padres, Thursday, Oct. 3, 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Padres come in as solid favorites, but the Braves are no strangers to postseason surprises. We think these odds accurately portray this WC series.
Padres: -180
Braves: +150
The Padres' strong second half and home-field advantage make them the clear favorite. But don’t rule out ATL. Their playoff pedigree cannot be discounted.
If you want to get in on the action and place some bets, the best way is to look at them side by side. Here’s how these teams look face-to-face.
The Padres likely have the most complete pitching staff in the playoffs. They have a rotation led by Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish which is simply dominant. Cease is a true ace with overpowering stuff, while Musgrove and Darvish provide a veteran presence and have looked sharp after injury-related absences earlier in the season.
Michael King rounds out the rotation as a versatile arm who can step in as a starter or reliever. That’s the type of flexibility teams need to go deep into the playoffs.
The Braves, on the other hand, are dealing with a more uncertain rotation.
Sure, there’s Chris Sale. He has been dominant this season with a 2.38 ERA and has sealed the deal as the NL Triple Crown winner and is a sure lock for the Cy Young. However, he is battling back spasms and may not be available for Game 1.
If Sale can’t go, the Braves could turn to Max Fried or Reynaldo López, but both pitchers are coming off recent workloads. Charlie Morton is another option, though the 40-year-old pitched on the final Sunday of the season and may not be at full strength.
Atlanta’s pitching depth has been stretched thin, and with key starters and relievers like Spencer Schwellenbach already ruled out for the Wild Card Series, the Braves' rotation faces an uphill battle against San Diego's rested and dominant arms.
Just looking at the pitching alone, the Say May Kids take the cake.
San Diego's bullpen is another strength that gives them an edge in the series.
Robert Suarez has solidified himself as the closer, saving 36 games with a 2.77 ERA. That’s pretty solid for a closer.
The Padres' bullpen is deep, featuring a mix of power arms like Tanner Scott and Jeremiah Estrada, as well as crafty relievers like Jason Adam, who provide versatility and length if needed. When you’re in the MLB playoffs, you need some length.
Their ability to shorten games makes San Diego a tough team to beat, especially at home.
The Braves’ bullpen, headlined by Raisel Iglesias, is also decent but enters this series fatigued.
Iglesias pitched in both games of Atlanta’s Monday doubleheader, while other key relievers like Grant Holmes and Reynaldo López have been heavily used in recent days. Simply not as fresh as their Padre counterparts.
While Iglesias has been stellar with an eye-popping 1.95 ERA and 34 saves, the overall wear and tear on Atlanta’s bullpen could pose problems.
The Braves will need fresh arms to step up in order to keep pace with the Padres’ deep relief corps.
So, who’s going to win the Padres vs. Braves Wild Card Series? Take a look at these matchups and you’ll have your answer.
Dylan Cease vs. Braves' offense. Cease is the Padres’ ace, and his ability to overpower hitters with his high-90s fastball and devastating slider could give San Diego the advantage they’re looking for. Atlanta’s offense, led by Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson, will need to find a way to put pressure on Cease early if they want to steal Game 1.
Jurickson Profar vs. Raisel Iglesias. Profar has been a key player for the Padres, hitting 24 home runs and posting a .380 OBP. If this series comes down to late-inning heroics, Profar vs. Iglesias could be a defining battle. Iglesias, who has been nearly unhittable this season, will have to be at his best to keep the Braves in games.
The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball heading into the postseason. They went 43-20 after the All-Star break.
Their combination of a deep starting rotation, a shutdown bullpen, and an offense that led the majors in batting average makes them the favorite in this series and beyond.
San Diego’s contact-oriented approach could be the deciding factor in tight playoff games where every at-bat counts, especially with Petco Park playing host to all 3 games.
The Padres’ pitching staff is also perfectly suited for playoff baseball. Cease gives them an ace who can go deep into games, while Musgrove, Darvish, and King provide solid backup between Cease starts.
Their bullpen is fully rested, with plenty of firepower to close out close games. With all three games at home, the Padres will benefit from playing in front of a rowdy crowd, eager to witness the team’s first playoff run since 2022.
Despite being the underdog, the Braves are no strangers to postseason success.
Injuries have plagued them all year, but their ability to stay in the race has been nothing short of remarkable.
Players like Marcell Ozuna (39 HR, .924 OPS) and Matt Olson (14 defensive runs saved) give Atlanta both offensive firepower and defensive stability.
The biggest key for Atlanta could be the health of Chris Sale.
If Sale is available and pitches like the ace he’s been all season, the Braves could steal a game and shift the series in their favor with a little momentum.
Atlanta has also thrived in adversity, Their playoff experience, particularly with veterans like Charlie Morton, gives them the know-how to make it through tough situations.
If — big if — their rotation can hold the Padres’ offense at bay, the Braves have enough talent to pull off an upset.
There’s no doubt that this series heavily favors the Padres. The Dads have home-field advantage, a deeper pitching staff, and momentum heading into October. It’s a perfect storm to move onto the Dodgers.
However, Atlanta has a knack for surprising teams when the stakes are highest. If Sale can pitch effectively, and the Braves’ bullpen holds up, this series could go to 3 games. We see it ending in 2.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Padres win the series 2-0.
The Padres’ depth in both their rotation and bullpen, coupled with their contact-heavy offense, should be enough to take care of an injury-riddled Braves team. Expect San Diego to advance and set up a blockbuster matchup with the Dodgers in the NLDS.