The 2024 MLB postseason kicks off with an explosive matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Series.
The Orioles are looking to erase the memory of last year's disappointing early exit. The Royals, on the other hand, are looking to keep their remarkable turnaround season alive.
Both teams bring strengths and question marks into this best-of-three series, which will decide who moves on to face the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
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Want to catch each game? These are the times for each of the best-of-three series.
Game 1. Royals at Orioles, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 4:08 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 2. Royals at Orioles, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 4:38 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3 (if necessary). Royals at Orioles, Thursday, Oct. 3, 4:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
According to current betting lines, the Orioles enter the series as slight favorites over KC. The odds at each sportsbook will vary slightly, but these are the general odds across all major sports betting sites.
Orioles: -170
Royals: +145
Baltimore is seen as the stronger team in this matchup, but with the unpredictability of playoff baseball, those betting on an underdog like Kansas City could see some value if the Royals manage to pull off an upset.
We like to break down each team so you know where they stand before the series kicks off.
The Orioles and Royals come into the series with some different dynamics in their pitching staffs.
For Baltimore, the ace of the rotation is Corbin Burnes, a veteran right-hander who has found his groove at the perfect time.
Burnes has been lights out in September, posting a 1.20 ERA with an uptick in strikeouts. He looks like he’s back in top form. Behind him, the Orioles' rotation also features Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer, both capable arms that, while not as dominant as Burnes, provide enough depth to the pitching rotation to handle a short series. They do, however, have to look beyond just this series if they’re going to go up against the NY Yankees.
Kansas City’s rotation has been surprisingly strong all season. It’s anchored by Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans who are both nothing to scoff at.
Lugo’s been an innings eater with a consistent 3.00 ERA, while Ragans has been a revelation. Kansas City’s rotation ranked as one of the top three in the league in multiple categories this year, including strikeout rate, though some talking-heads don’t fully buy into their sustained success. We happen to think they’re solid.
Even so, Lugo and Ragans have done enough to keep the Royals competitive, with Michael Wacha and Brady Singer providing additional depth.
Both teams have questions regarding their bullpens.
The Orioles' relief corps has struggled recently with a 5.50 ERA over the past month. That’s been a theme for the team the entire month. But there is hope that names like Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez can rebound.
The Royals’ bullpen, on the other hand, features the underrated Lucas Erceg, who has been a dominant late-inning arm. Still, Kansas City will need others like Carlos Hernandez or Daniel Lynch to step up if they hope to go far in the playoffs.
These are where the game-changers will be on each side of the series.
Corbin Burnes vs. Seth Lugo (Game 1). This matchup is pivotal. Burnes, a former Cy Young winner, has the experience and current form to dominate, but Lugo has been quietly consistent all season. If Burnes continues his September dominance, Baltimore could get a huge early edge. That early edge, statistically, plays very well for moving on to the next round.
Gunnar Henderson vs. Bobby Witt Jr. This series will also feature an exciting head-to-head of two young stars. Gunnar Henderson has had a breakout season with 37 homers and a 9.0 WAR. Not too shabby for the kid. Bobby Witt Jr. was dominant as well as he put up an MVP-level campaign with 32 homers, 31 stolen bases, and a 9.4 WAR. Both play shortstop and are central to their teams’ success. Whoever shines brighter in this series could tip the scales for their team.
Baltimore comes into this series playing its best baseball in weeks.
They closed out September on a bit of a hot streak, winning five of their last six games, including a sweep of the Twins. Some say it was the final nail in the Twin's coffin.
Their runup is in stark contrast to the Royals who limped into the playoffs, losing nine of their last 13 games. Momentum is clearly on Baltimore’s side.
On top of that, the Orioles benefit from playing at home.
Baltimore finished with a strong home record and will have the advantage of hosting all three games of this series at Camden Yards, where their young core, including Adley Rutschman and Henderson, has thrived. They went 44-37 at home throughout the season so history is on their side.
The Orioles' offense also has the capability to break open games, especially if their pitching can keep the Royals in check early.
Baltimore's starting staff, led by Burnes, doesn’t need to be dominant over a long series — they just need to be effective in two games. Sounds easy enough, but this is post-season baseball.
With Burnes' recent adjustments to his pitch mix paying off in a big way, the Orioles are in a good spot to win Game 1 and set the tone.
Despite being the underdog, the Royals can’t be overlooked.
Kansas City’s starting rotation, particularly Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, gives them a fighting chance. If Lugo can outduel Burnes in Game 1, the pressure will shift entirely to Baltimore. This momentum would be huge for Baltimore because they’ve shown they struggle when coming from behind.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the Royals' heartbeat. He’s had a monstrous season and can impact the game with both his bat and legs. Along with Freddy Fermin, who brings excellent defense behind the plate and a strong throwing arm (46% caught-stealing rate — you read that right), the Royals have a solid lineup that thrives on doing the little things right.
The defense will be key for Kansas City, and their infield, led by Witt and Fermin, is one of the best in the league.
One of the Royals’ biggest advantages is how little pressure they face. The team wasn’t expected to be in this position after losing 106 games last season. They can play fast and loose because of it. If Baltimore’s youth struggles under the playoff spotlight, the Royals might capitalize.
This series should be tightly contested. We’re definitely not seeing a sweep in this one, but anything can happen.
The Orioles have the edge, especially with home-field advantage and Burnes pitching at his peak. Baltimore’s lineup, led by Henderson, has been hot recently (a week or so), and their experience from last year’s postseason could pay dividends despite having some younger players.
That said, the Royals are by no means a pushover. If their rotation can hold the Orioles’ offense in check, this series could go to three games.
However, Baltimore’s combination of pitching depth and a lineup hitting its stride makes them the likelier team to advance.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Orioles win the series 2-1.
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