The Houston Astros return to the postseason — yet again — as one of the most dominant teams of the last decade. However, the Detroit Tigers make their first playoff appearance in ten years.
This best-of-three American League Wild Card Series will determine who moves on to face the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.
With the Astros' postseason pedigree and the Tigers' second-half surge, this series is going to settle the debate of experience versus momentum.
We think you should definitely catch a game if you can, but the fans aren’t too happy with this 3 game series being all-day games.
Game 1. Tigers at Astros, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 2. Tigers at Astros, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 3 (if necessary). Tigers at Astros, Thursday, Oct. 3, 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Astros are favored to win the series. Most of the major online sportsbooks have them sitting with the following odds on the series—
Astros: -175
Tigers: +150
The odds tilt toward Houston’s experience and consistency over the years. However, Detroit’s strong finish to the season could make this a more competitive series than the odds suggest. As dominant as the Tigers have been since August 10th, we’re really liking that +150.
One of the best ways to see how this series will go is to just look at the teams side-by-side.
Both teams enter this Wild Card series with strong pitching rotations.
For the Astros, Framber Valdez will get the ball in Game 1. The lefty posted a 2.91 ERA this season with excellent control and a devastating sinker.
Behind him, Houston has depth, with Yusei Kikuchi (a standout since his trade to the Astros) and Hunter Brown, who has been lights out since adding a sinker to his arsenal midseason.
While veteran Justin Verlander might not start in this series, his presence looms large for potential future games. It would undoubtedly be fun to watch him play in the postseason against his former team.
The Tigers will counter with their ace, Tarik Skubal, in Game 1. Skubal has been one of the best pitchers in the league, posting a 2.39 ERA with 222 strikeouts. He’s the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award and has been virtually unhittable down the stretch. He’s also the AL Triple Crown winner.
Detroit’s rotation, bolstered by Casey Mize and Reese Olson, doesn’t have the same postseason experience as Houston’s, but they’ve been effective. They rank in the top five by ERA this season. Comerica Park has helped suppress homers, but neutral numbers still place them as a top-10 unit.
In a short series, the Tigers' heavy reliance on Skubal could work in their favor.
If he shuts down Houston in Game 1, Detroit will be in a strong position to win the series. Tyler Holton (2.19 ERA) provides another reliable option for Game 2 or 3, especially with the Astros’ lineup potentially missing their top slugger.
The Astros’ bullpen is a bit weaker compared to previous years, but they still have solid arms like Bryan Abreu and recently acquired Josh Hader.
Abreu posted a 3.10 ERA this season and remains one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. He’s got an 11.8 K/9. That’s not too bad. The Astros bullpen is expected to hold up in the late innings, especially if their starters can hand over a lead.
Detroit’s bullpen, meanwhile, has outperformed expectations, to say the least.
Their 2.81 ERA since August 1 is the best in the majors. However, some metrics suggest the Tigers’ relief corps could struggle under the postseason spotlight.
Detroit ranks 13th in bullpen WAR, and projections have them as the second-worst among playoff teams.
Despite that, prospect Jackson Jobe has emerged as a potential X-factor. His electric stuff and high strikeout rate could give the Tigers an unexpected advantage in tight games.
These are the biggest matchups between these two AL powerhouses.
Framber Valdez vs. Tarik Skubal (Game 1). This is the most crucial matchup of the series. Both aces will be looking to dominate, and the winner of this game could dictate the flow of the series. Skubal’s ability to miss bats and limit hard contact gives the Tigers a shot at stealing Game 1. Despite that, Valdez’s groundball-inducing sinker could neutralize Detroit’s lineup. Bet the under on this game.
Yordan Alvarez vs. Tigers’ pitching staff. Alvarez is a game-changer for Houston, with 35 home runs and a .308 average. However, a sprained knee has slowed him down. It’s unclear how much he’ll be able to contribute. If he’s not at 100%, the Tigers will have a better chance of containing the Astros’ powerful lineup. Detroit will look to take advantage of him not being there by attacking Houston’s other top hitters like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.
The Astros have the edge in experience.
Few teams have as much postseason pedigree as Houston. With stars like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman leading the charge, they know what it’s like to play in October.
Altuve will start his 104th playoff game on Tuesday, and Bregman is not far behind with 98 postseason games under his belt. This level of playoff familiarity is invaluable in the high-pressure environment of October baseball.
Houston also has one of the best pitching staffs in the AL. They’ve been particularly strong since May 1, when they posted the league’s lowest team ERA.
Even though Yordan Alvarez may not be at full strength, the Astros’ depth across their lineup and pitching staff gives them an advantage in a short series.
The key for Houston will be getting strong starts from Valdez and Kikuchi to set the tone early, allowing them to hand the game over to their experienced bullpen.
Momentum is on Detroit’s side.
The Tigers have been red-hot since July, going 48-30, the best record in baseball over that span.
Their pitching staff has been nothing short of dominant. With a 2.81 ERA since August, it’s easy to see why. On top of that, Tarik Skubal gives them a legitimate ace to go toe-to-toe with anyone.
In a short series, one great start from Skubal could swing the entire series in Detroit’s favor. They’ll absolutely take advantage of that momentum and strike on the Astros.
The Tigers also have the advantage of being underestimated.
After years of missing the playoffs, there’s little pressure on them compared to Houston.
Riley Greene has quietly been one of the best young hitters in the league, posting 24 homers and a 136 OPS+ and being selected for the ASB. Meanwhile, catcher Jake Rogers provides elite defense behind the plate, with 14 defensive runs saved and a 26% caught-stealing rate. Not the best in the league, but he holds his own.
The Tigers’ bullpen, while less experienced than Houston’s, has been lights out in the second half. If Tyler Holton and Jackson Jobe can replicate their recent success, Detroit could grind out a series win.
This series has all the makings of a classic veteran vs. underdog showdown and that excites us.
The Astros have the experience, but the Tigers have the momentum. Game 1 will be critical for both dugouts.
If Skubal can silence Houston’s bats early in the series, Detroit will be in an excellent position to pull off the upset. However, Houston’s depth, both in their lineup and their pitching staff, makes them the safer bet over three games.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Tigers win the series 2-1.
There’s a lot to be said about momentum. From 2010 through 2020, teams that won the first game in the 3-game series won 76% of the time. With Skubal on the mound, they stand a good chance of taking game 1.