Get a jump start on the MLB card for Thursday by diving into our betting preview, which includes the live odds and some best bets for August 29. Good luck, sports betting family! Let's build on the 209-165 record!
Let's get some housekeeping out of the way before we get to the plays. I'll be on vacation in Sweet Home Alabama for the next few days, so I won't have any MLB until Wednesday, September 4th. Enjoy the Labor Day Weekend, folks!
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SD at STL - 2:15 PM EDT
Yes, we are riding the Padres and fading the Cardinals for the 4th straight day. These are two teams headed in completely different directions. I get that most of the advanced stats prefer Sonny Gray over Michael King, but I'm not so sure he should be the favorite in this spot.
This almost pick'em price does not take into account the current form of either starting pitcher. King has been on a major roll lately, as he's only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. The 29-year-old should be able to carve up this Cards lineup with his sinker that drops off the table.
Gray, on the other hand, has been lit up for 13 earned runs the last 3 times he's gotten the ball. I love that Gray is a bulldog who loves to challenge hitters, but lately he's been getting way too much of the plate. That could be a problem against Manny Machado, who is batting .367 against Gray with 2 homers in his career.
NYM at AZ - 3:40 PM EDT
This one is a bit scary because David Peterson has been lights out of late. The 28-year-old lefty is having a fantastic season, as he's 8-1 with a tiny ERA of 2.85. That said, Peterson's expected ERA of 5.28 suggests that some negative regression is coming soon to a theater near you.
Ryne Nelson is not one of my favorite righties, but he's been pitching with a chip on his shoulder ever since Torey Lovullo threatened to send him to the bullpen. Nelson hits 95 on the gun pretty easily with his fastball and he rarely walks many guys.
Both of these teams have good offenses, but we've made a boatload of cash riding this Arizona lineup lately. The D'Backs lead the Majors in WRC+ since July 29th. Lay the small number with the Snakes!
ATL at PHI - 6:40 PM EDT
Oh yes, we've started riding the ATL Train and it's paid off nicely. The Braves have overcome a ton of adversity this season and they're still sitting in a good spot to at least get a Wild Card spot. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they've lost Acuna, Strider, Riley, and Albies.
Even though they've lost a ton of guys, newcomers like Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Gio Urshela have helped carry the load. I especially like the fact that Merrifield and Urshela have better contact rates than the guys they're replacing.
I give the Bravos a slight edge with their bullpen, and I also like how much better their lineup has been producing. Atlanta ranks 10th in WRC+ against lefties while Philly ranks just 13th against righties. This dog price is too juicy to pass up!