After a profitable 3-1 weekend, our MLB selections now sit at 205-165 for the season! Let's keep the positive MOJO running with our 2 best bets for Monday, August 26. Good luck, betting family!
Just a quick note before we get to the picks: Since it's officially football season, our MLB plays will decrease in volume for the rest of the season. The beginning of football combined with the upcoming September roster expansions will make handicapping MLB on a daily basis much tougher.
Don't worry! We'll still have plays from time to time, but the MLB writeups may go from 6 per week down to 3 or so.
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CHC at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
I'm not crazy about backing Jameson Taillon, but he's one of those guys who always seems to perform better than his advanced metrics. The veteran righty doesn't throw overly hard, but his cut fastball has some nice movement. The Pirates are hitting just .129 against Taillon through 75 career plate appearances, so that's a nice stat in our favor!
I respect Mitch Keller, but this Cubs lineup has had some decent success against him. Chicago has an expected batting average of .287 against Keller and Ian Happ has smashed 3 homers off of him. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Cody Bellinger are each hitting .308 or better against Keller in their respective careers.
This Cubs lineup isn't packed with All-Stars, but they've got a lot more punch than the Pirates. The North Siders have also hit the ball much better of late, as they rank 7th in WRC+ since July 27th. The Pirates rank just 25th in that category over that same span. Give me the Cubbies at the dog price!
SD at STL - 7:45 PM EDT
Geez! What does this San Diego team have to do to get a little respect from the oddsmakers? My numbers have the Pads as the 3rd best team in the National League, but we still see dog prices on them several times per week.
Randy Vasquez scares me at times, but we have to remember that this is his first full season as a big-league starter. The 25-year-old doesn't have dynamic stuff, but he has 6 different pitches and rarely walks many guys. The Cards lineup has woken up a bit lately, but I still view them as average at best, so I like Vasquez's chances.
San Diego has huge edges with both its bullpen and its lineup. The Pads relievers lead all of baseball in K minus BB rate over the last month. The Cardinals rank just 26th during that timeframe.
The Padres offense ranks 2nd against righties for the season and 3rd in WRC+ over the last 30 days. The Cards rank just 14th and 19th in those categories, respectively. Let's play the Pads and bank on another big night from Jackson Merrill.