Get locked and loaded for Thursday's MLB slate of games by checking out our betting preview. We've settled on 3 best bets and a top player prop for August 15. Let's keep building the bankroll for football season!
Note: Any time we are betting on openers, make sure to choose listed pitchers. This will keep you from getting burned if the team scratches a starter the next morning.
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OAK at NYM - 1:10 PM EDT
Has anyone noticed how much fight this Oakland squad has shown since the All-Star break? The A's keep getting disrespected in the market, even though they rank 6th in WRC+ over the last month. I'm thinking that Oakland can do some damage against Jose Quintana in this one.
Quintana has pitched better than I thought he would this season, but he was just lit up by a Mariners team that has struggled all year long at the plate. Oakland starter Mitch Spence isn't a household name, but he rates better than Quintana in expected ERA and expected batting average.
The Mets do have the better bullpen, so I wouldn't blame you if you waited to go the First 5 route with this one on Thursday morning. That said, I'm comfortable playing Oak-town for the full game for half a unit!
LAD at MIL - 2:10 PM EDT
I get that this Brewers offense is the real deal, but this price is way too cheap on a guy like Jack Flaherty. The former Detroit Tiger has arguably been the most dominant righty in baseball this season and I expect him to keep this Milwaukee lineup at bay. Flaherty's K-rate and whiff rates both rank in the 94th percentile, which is insanely impressive.
Both teams have pretty solid bullpens, but I'll give LA the slight nod in that department. The Dodgers are 13th in reliever K minus BB rate, while the Brew Crew checks in at 17th. I also expect the powerful Dodgers bats to get a few runs off of Tobias Myers.
LA has slipped to 9th in offense over the last month, but that should change now that Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are both back in the lineup. The Dodgers rank 4th this season in WRC+ against righties, while the Brewers rank 9th.
MIN at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
I was ill as a hornet that Minny moved Bailey Ober's start from Wednesday to Thursday. That said, I still think this is a good spot to back him against a pretty pitiful Texas lineup. The Rangers rank just 28th out of 30 MLB teams in WRC+ since July 15th.
Ober has been in excellent form, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts. His 6'9" frame makes his 92 mph fastball look more like 97 mph. He also has a nice cutter and a wicked slider, so look for plenty of swings and misses from the Rangers in this one.
Minny has the better offense (7th in WRC+ last 30 days) and the better bullpen (9th in K-BB rate) in this matchup, so I'd be really shocked if Texas pulled off the upset. Give me the much better team at a decent price!
ATL at SF - 3:45 PM EDT
I'm once again taking advantage of BetMGM's fabulous 33% Odds Boost on this prop play. That took the odds from +105 to +139 on this Over. The G-Men have lost 3 straight to Atlanta and they're leaning heavily on their ace Logan Webb to stop the bleeding.
Webb isn't a prolific strikeout guy, but he did fan 6 Braves hitters back on the 4th of July. The veteran righty has a devastating sinker when he gets it working, which is the main reason why he ranks in the 87th percentile in Chase Rate.
Atlanta's bats sprung to life yesterday, but this lineup still strikes out an awful lot against righties. The Braves has 6 hitters with K-rates above 24.7%. It also doesn't hurt that Webb has a lifetime K-rate of 26.4% against this Braves roster. This is the ideal spot to play the Over!