Welcome to our MLB betting preview for Tuesday, August 6. Let's try and build on our 175-141 record with 4 best bets for this packed slate. Good luck, sports betting compadres!
Every Tuesday through Friday, we're going to attack a few of the opening lines for the next day's games. The idea is to capture as much closing line value as possible, and betting early allows us to do that. Let's go 3-1 or better with these!
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SF at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT
Hayden Birdsong has played some lovely music through his first 6 MLB starts (sorry, I just had to). The sample size is small, but I think this kid is the real deal for San Fran. The 22-year hits 96 mph with his fastball and both of his breaking pitches are dynamic.
The Nats are no easy out at home, but MacKenzie Gore has a bad habit of walking lots of guys. That could come back to bite Washington in this matchup. The Giants hit lefties incredibly well, as they're 4th in WRC+ this season against southpaws.
I also think the G-Men have the much better bullpen in this game. San Fran ranks 9th in K minus BB rate with their relievers this season. Washington ranks an abysmal 23rd. Let's lay the small price with San Fran on the road and look for another solid start from Birdsong.
BAL at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
Wow, I made this line around -180 or so, even with the O's on the highway. Grayson Rodriguez is a top-tier pitcher in the American League and this Blue Jays lineup has an expected batting average of just .223 against him.
G-Rod can get wild at times, but his 96 mph fastball looks more like 100 mph because of the extension he gets with his 6'5" frame. He was a -230 favorite at home last week against Toronto, so it makes you wonder why this price is so cheap, even on the road.
Baltimore has the better bullpen and the much better offense. The Orioles rank 2nd in WRC+ against righties this season. The Jays rank 13th. Don't overthink this one. Play the Dirty Birds!
MIN at CHC - 8:05 PM EDT
We cashed a nice rocking-chair winner with Pablo Lopez and the Twinkies last week, and I see no reason not to play them again in this spot. Sure, the Cubbies are playing better and they'll have their ace on the hill in Shota Imanaga. That said, I still think Lopez is a slightly better starter.
Even with Chicago's recent offensive surge, they're still just 19th in WRC+ over the last 30 days. Minnesota is 7th in that category, and they could punish this Cubs bullpen in the later innings. This is especially true since Chicago traded away their top reliever in Mark Leiter Jr.
Imanaga has good stuff, but he really only has two solid pitches. This Twins lineup ranks a respectable 10th against lefties. Give me Minny as a small dog and let's watch Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach do some damage!
BOS at KC - 8:10 PM EDT
If they're going to give me the hottest hitting team in baseball at a nice dog price, I'm buying! Boston leads MLB in WRC+ over the last 30 days and they're showing no signs of slowing down. The Red Sox just took 2 of 3 on the road against the Rangers over the weekend.
I hate betting against Seth Lugo and his 9 different pitches but keep in mind that Boston roughed him up for 5 earned runs on July 13th. Guys like Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran are highly capable of getting to Lugo in this spot. As good as Lugo is, the Red Sox have the much better bullpen in this matchup.
The Royals have been hitting the ball well of late also, but they're still just 14th against righties for the season. The BoSox are ranked 6th in that same category. Let's play Boston at this nice plus price!