As the dust settles after the MLB trade deadline, everyone is diving into the impacts of the deals made and how they might shift the playoff landscape. Several teams have made some pretty significant moves to bolster their rosters for the postseason push and we’re liking the odds.
Here’s who we think is a guarantee for the MLB playoffs with their recent trades.
Odds to make the playoffs. +200
Our thoughts on the odds. Easily underrated. Take this bet!
The St. Louis Cardinals were in an interesting position before the trade deadline, needing to address multiple roster holes while chasing a spot in the National League Wild Card race. Not that it’s the toughest race ever, but it’s one of the tightest.
The team had a negative run differential and struggled particularly against left-handed pitching, ranking 29th in MLB with a .633 OPS against southpaws. That’s not a good look for a team wanting to make it to October.
However, we think the Cardinals made strategic moves to shore up their weaknesses. The acquisition of Erick Fedde, one of the top starting pitchers available, is a huge addition to their rotation. Fedde not only helps this season but is also signed for the next, adding future value that goes beyond just the 2024 playoffs. The addition of Tommy Pham, who dominates against left-handed pitching, directly addresses one of their biggest lineup issues as well. Meanwhile, Shawn Alexander adds much-needed depth to an already overworked bullpen.
So, what did they lose? Nothing too notable. The Cardinals gave up Tommy Edman, who hadn’t played this season, and Dylan Carlson, a player who struggled to find his form. They also moved a couple of lower-tier prospects, keeping their farm system largely intact for the most part.
The Cardinals may not be a top-tier team, but their recent trades make their run for the playoffs that much more realistic.
Odds to make the playoffs. -1000
Our thoughts on the odds. Exactly what we expected. They’re a shoe-in and the trades make that even more so. Easy bet to win, but not tons of money on the line.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are no strangers to making headline-grabbing moves at the trade deadline. 2024 is no different, as they secured pitcher Jack Flaherty in a surprising last-minute deal.
Flaherty, who had a tough stint with the Orioles in 2023, has rebounded this season with some solid performances in Detroit. His addition provides stability to a Dodgers rotation that has seen its share of injuries and inconsistency.
Besides Flaherty, the Dodgers also picked up Michael Kopech, Amed Rosario (again), Kevin Kiermaier, and the versatile Tommy Edman. Edman, in particular, could be an exciting addition if he gets back to the way he used to be.
These moves underscore the Dodgers' "World Series or bust" mentality. While they were highly favored to make the playoffs before the trade deadline, these moves just solidified their chances. In fact, they top the charts to win the World Series with a +330 odds. So, the best of the best just got better.
Odds to make the playoffs. +105
Our thoughts on the odds. After these moves, we think Seattle is going to over take Houston and not have to worry about the Wild Card. We’d take these odds all day long.
The Seattle Mariners have had a roller-coaster season, at one point holding a 10-game lead in the AL West, only to see it evaporate. It happens, of course, but the GM realized he needed to do something.
Injuries to key players like Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford further complicated their campaign. At the trade deadline, the Mariners looked to give a bit of a boost to their offense by acquiring Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. These players may not be superstars, but they bring much-needed experience to the lineup. Given that Seattle is 29th in the MLB with batting average and 28th in runs, any “decent” bats would be welcomed.
Arozarena's ability to hit for power and Turner's veteran presence are going to be a big deal for a Mariners team still chasing its first division title since 2001.
With Rodríguez expected back soon, the Mariners’ lineup is shaping up to be more balanced and capable of supporting their dominant pitching staff.
We think the odds are underrating the Mariners. With these moves and their pitching, they will not only make the playoffs but will go deep into October.
Odds to make the playoffs. +115
Our thoughts on the odds. These odds are fairly precise. The Mets are not winning the NL East, but they stand a really good chance of getting a Wild Card slot.
The New York Mets approached the trade deadline with a strategy that balanced both their immediate needs and future considerations. Honestly, they’ve made some of the most calculated decisions we’ve seen in a long time.
They addressed their need for a left-handed bat by acquiring Jesse Winker, bolstered their rotation with Paul Blackburn, and added a few bullpen arms to give them some more relief options.
These moves are not earth-shattering but are fairly smart and prudent.
The Mets didn’t give up any key pieces, which is more important than ever as they try to stay competitive in a crowded National League playoff picture.
We think the Mets are doing enough to keep pace, especially considering that their main rivals, the Braves, did not make any major moves, but it will get them into the playoff picture.
Odds to make the playoffs. -3000
Our thoughts on the odds. Great odds for the team, not for a bet. The Orioles will make the playoffs, but with -3000 odds, we wouldn’t put money into that.
The Baltimore Orioles had high hopes for acquiring a top-tier pitcher but settled for quantity over quality at the trade deadline.
They added Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers to their rotation, and Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto to their bullpen. Obviously, they’ve noticed that they’ve got a playoff team but need some more work on the mound if they want to go deep into the playoffs.
Eloy Jiménez is another solid addition, bringing power potential to the lineup. Cristian Pache also joins the team, adding yet another defensive option in the outfield.
It’s apparent that the Orioles are focusing on building a roster that can withstand the grind of the postseason. They now have interchangeable parts that can adapt to various situations.
Baltimore is going head-to-head against the Yankees for the AL East, but even if they slip up and the Yankees take the division, the Orioles will undoubtedly get a Wild Card slot.
Odds to make the playoffs. -10000
Our thoughts on the odds. Odds are accurate. Don’t bet on it unless you want a sure bet to make pennies on the dollar. The +500 to win the WS wouldn’t be a bad bet, however.
The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in the National League. Then they go on to make some moves that assure their success deep into October. We might be looking at the next World Series winner.
They acquired Carlos Estévez, arguably the best reliever available, and Tanner Banks to give a moderate boost to their bullpen. Austin Hays, a versatile outfielder with some speed, was also added, providing another reliable bat to the roster.
We’re thinking these acquisitions are not meant to overhaul the team but to fine-tune it for the postseason. The Phillies are all in for this year, and their moves reflect a clear strategy to maximize their chances in October.
The trade deadline has reshaped the playoff race, with several teams significantly improving their odds.
The Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, and Royals all made moves to bolster their chances, while the Dodgers and Phillies solidified their already strong positions. These are all teams that we think will get into the playoffs with the recent moves they’ve made.
As the season enters its final stretch, these teams will be worth watching as they vie for postseason berths and, potentially, deep playoff runs. Is it worth your bet? We sure think so.