Ready to finish off the month on a high note? It's been a roller coaster of a month but we're still sitting at 168-138 for the season. Check out our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, July 31!
We've got 2 best bets that are ready to roll now and a player prop bet that will be added tomorrow morning by 8:30 AM EDT! Good luck, fellow sports investors! Let's kick the books in the teeth today!
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NH/NJ/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY), (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). Must be 21+ (18+ KY/WY).
MIN at NYM - 1:10 PM EDT
Minnesota burned us in a big way on Monday night, as they were blown out by New York to the tune of 15-2. That was the kind of embarrassing loss that should light a fire under this Twins squad. Pablo Lopez has had some tough luck this season, but he's a guy that I trust when the chips are down.
Lopez has done much better in day games (6-2, 3.22 ERA) than night games (3-5, 6.22 ERA) in 2024. Some pitchers just like working in the heat more than others and Lopez definitely fits that bill. Luis Severino has been a great comeback story for the Mets, but his stuff isn't anywhere near as dominant as Lopez's.
Both of these teams are very similar in terms of their bullpen and their lineups. I give the Mets a slight edge in the reliever department, but I like the Twins offense just a smidge better. Let's lay the small number with a true ace like Lopez!
CHC at CIN - 7:10 PM EDT
We rode the Nick Lodolo train to the cash-out window on Friday night and I think wer'e getting a decent price with him again in this spot. The Cubs have an expected batting average of just .186 against Lodolo through 72 plate appearances. Lodolo's curveball wasn't that sharp in his last outing, but I don't expect that to happen 2 starts in a row.
On the flip side, we're getting to fade Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. The veteran righty appears to be past his prime, as he's just 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA over his last 5 starts. The Reds shouldn't have any trouble knocking him around at home in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.
Though I like Chicago's lineup a little bit better than Cincy's, I still think the Reds have a nice bullpen advantage in this matchup. Cincinnati ranks 5th in the ever-so-important K-BB rate. Chicago ranks just 15th. Give me the Red Legs!
ATL at MIL - 2:10 PM EDT
Man, doesn't this line look at least one strikeout less than what it should be? Peralta's had his ups and downs this year, but he's still one of the best power pitchers in the National League. The 28-year-old's median K number is 7 this season, and he's gone over this total in 12 of his 21 starts.
Peralta gets a very favorable matchup today against an Atlanta team that strikes out a ton versus righties. The Braves have 7 regular players with K-rates above 23%. They added Jorge Soler at the trade deadline yesterday, but he's also no stranger to swinging and missing.
In the end, there's too much value to pass up on this play. Peralta's 29.5% K-rate ranks in the 89th percentile and his whiff rate is also very impressive (90th percentile). Look for a big day for Freddy at home! Take the Over!