It's been an up-and-down July for our MLB selections, but we're still sitting at 166-134 on the season. Let's start the week off right with 2 best bets and a player prop for Monday, July 29. Best of luck, sports betting family!
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MIN at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
I probably need my head examined for fading this hot Mets team, but I think this is a prime spot to fade Jose Quintana. The 35-year-old has looked great lately, but his expected ERA of 5.22 suggests that the regression monster is hiding right around the corner. He could have a tough time navigating this Minnesota lineup.
Speaking of these Minnesota hitters, they've been one of the top offenses in baseball all year long. The Twins rank 3rd in WRC+ over the last 30 days. Guys like Trevor Larncach and Byron Buxton have really come on of late and I think they'll get to Quintana early and often in this one.
Simeon Woods Richardson (aka: The Law Firm) was drafted by the Mets, but they traded him before he made their big-league club. The 23-year-old righty will have a little extra motivation pitching against the team that gave up on him. Look for Woods Richardson to use that dynamic slider to his advantage. The wrong team is favored in this one!
SEA at BOS - 7:10 PM EDT
Seattle swept the lowly Chicago White Sox over the weekend, but how much credit can we really give them for that? Sure, the addition of Randy Arozarena adds some much-needed spark to this anemic lineup, but I'm not ready to crown them just yet. The M's rank just 21st in WRC+ this season.
As bad as Seattle's bats have been, their starting rotation and their bullpen have been excellent. Logan Gilbert is the ace of that staff and he'll get the ball today on the road in Boston. The total has stayed Under in 8 of Gilbert's last 11 starts, mainly because he rarely gives up more than 2 runs.
I get that playing an Under at Fenway Park is scary, but I think it's the only way to play this one. Even if Gilbert only goes 5 or 6 innings, the M's bullpen ranks 5th in K-BB% this season. Let's ride the Under!
SEA at BOS - 7:10 PM EDT
Pivetta burned us by the hook last week, but strange things always seem to happen at Coors Field. He should redeem himself tonight against this Mariners lineup that's very strikeout-prone. Seattle has 8 hitters with K-rates over 24%, so Pivetta should have plenty of strikeout opportunities.
I was shocked that this line was 6.5 and not 7.5, especially since Pivetta's strikeout rate of 29.5% is one of the best in the American League. The 31-year-old righty hits 94 mph on the gun with his fastball, but it looks more like 98 because of the extension his 6'5" frame generates.
Pivetta has struck out 102 hitters in just 84 innings of work this season, so we know he's not afraid to challenge hitters. He also struck out 10 against Seattle back on March 29th. Let's play the Over!