Our MLB picks got back on the right track yesterday, as we finished up at 2-1. Ryne Nelson easily stayed under his strikeout prop and our best bet was another easy cash with Detroit and Cleveland scoring just 3 runs. Our lone loser was another tough beat, as our Over on Nick Pivetta lost by the dreaded hook.
Let's build on that positive momentum with 2 more player props and a best bet for Thursday, July 25. All 3 of these selections have early start times, so get those bets in ASAP. Good luck, sports betting compadres!
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SD at WSH - 12:05 PM EDT
How about a nice sweaty Under to start off our Thursday? Look, I get that this is a scary play because Corbin has gone over this total in 4 of his last 5 starts. However, the veteran lefty has a lifetime K-rate of just 11% against this Padres lineup through 100 batters faced.
Corbin has pitched better lately, but he still has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball at only 16.4% (9th percentile). The 35-year-old's expected ERA is also a hefty 6.03, which is dead last in MLB. Holy Early Exit Potential, Batman!
San Diego has one of my go-to teams for Unders on strikeout props and with good reason. The Pads have 7 hitters that strike out less than 19.2% of the time. Let's enjoy a nice cup a java and cash an Under to start the day!
CWS at TEX - 2:35 PM EDT
Texas has never faced Cannon before, but that's not enough to scare me away from this Under. The 24-year-old has good command, but his stuff isn't too dominant. He's only struck out 43 hitters in 57 innings of work this season.
Cannon has a good sweeper, but he has yet to master his 4 other pitches. The former Georgia Bulldog prefers to use his sinker to get ground balls instead of trying to blow hitters away. He's stayed under this total in 3 of his last 5 starts.
The Rangers have let me down quite a bit this season, but they still put the ball in play very well against righties. Texas has 6 hitters with K-rates below 20.6%. Give me another afternoon Under!
TB at TOR - 3:07 PM EDT
If you follow me on X, you know that I played Tampa Bay on the series price at -105 back on Tuesday morning. Since the series is up for grabs today, I'll use this as my best bet. If you already have that series bet in pocket, i don't recommend doubling up on it.
This price makes absolutely no sense to me! Taj Bradley is one of my favorite young pitchers in the game and he's been on a major roll. The young righty is 4-1 with a tiny ERA of just 0.58 over his last 5 starts.
On the other hand, Chris Bassitt has been getting shelled lately. He's given up 12 earned runs over his last 3 outings and his breaking stuff isn't as sharp as it once was. I'm thinking Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena could both have big days against Bassitt.
According to my numbers, Tampa Bay also has slight edges with their bullpen and their lineup. Give me the Rays at this price that obviously doesn't reflect Bradley's raw talent.