My favorite scene from Back to the Future is where Marty simply asked Doc, "Did we make it? Are we back?" I'm reminded of that scene every year when the MLB All-Star break finally ends. All of that to say, it's great to be back capping baseball with you fine folks.
The first half of the season treated us handsomely, as our record was 158-121 for a profit of over 26 units! I like to decrease the volume during the 2nd half for a variety of reasons, mainly because the books have more data on the starting pitchers. Anyway, enough rambling, let's get to the plays!
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STL at ATL - 7:20 PM EDT
This barely meets my juice requirements, but this is a fantastic opportunity for Gray to have a big night. Though he's struggled a bit lately, Gray's 30.3% K-rate ranks in the 91st percentile! The veteran righty has gone over this total in 14 of his 17 starts in 2024.
This Braves lineup hasn't lived up to the hype this season. Atlanta ranks just 24th in WRC+ against righties and they've been striking out a ton of late. Atlanta has 6 hitters with strikeout rates over 22%.
Gray doesn't throw overly hard (93 mph) but his sweeper and his cutter are among the best in baseball. Look for him to have lots of success with those two pitches against guys like Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, and Matt Olson. Let's drink the juice and play the Over!
CWS at KC - 8:10 PM EDT
We've been playing Flexen unders for most of the season and there's no reason to stop now. The 30-year-old righty problem wouldn't even be a starter on most MLB teams. His fastball only tops out at 91mph and his breaking stuff never seems to be all that sharp.
Flexen also draws a tough matchup tonight against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have a feisty little lineup that's filled with guys who put the ball in play, especially at home. Seven of the Royals everyday players have K-rates below 20%.
I get that playing an Under on 3.5 is scary, but my numbers say that this line should be 2.5. Let's trust the math and play the Under on Flexen!
HOU at SEA - 10:10 PM EDT
Now that this line is under -140, this becomes a no-brainer for me! We've had a ton of success fading this Mariners lineup this season, and with good reason. Seattle is setting records left and right with their massive amount of strikeouts.
I have to admit that I was wrong about Hunter Brown. I really thought he'd be back in AAA after his horrid start to the year, but this kid has turned things around in a big way. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Brown hits 96 mph with both his fastball and his sinker, but he gets quite a bit of Ks with his changeup. Seattle's lineup has 8 guys with K-rates above 24%. Give me a late night Over to close out this card!