Wednesday was another result in the W column for the home team, as our MLB player props went 2-1 for the second night in a row! Our strikeout prop tickets on Reese Olson and Griffin Cannning got us to the pay window with relative ease.
Our lone blemish was on Cristopher Sanchez, who ruined our potential sweep by getting 5 Ks when we bet Under 4.5. Even still, any day in the green is a blessing. Let's get to the Thursday card, which finally has a daytime play! Enjoy!
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PIT at MIL- 2:10 PM EDT
I think the trade from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee will do Civale some good. A lot of times in sports a change of scenery is all it takes to really ignite a player's fire. This proved true in Civale's first start with the Brew Crew, as he struck out 8 against the Dodgers, who usually don't K all that much.
We're getting a favorable price on this one because Civale just faced this Pittsburgh team on June 23rd and only managed to get 3 strikeouts. I don't think that kind of performance happens again here today, especially since the Pirates have 5 hitters with K-rates over 23%.
Civale doesn't have dynamic stuff, but he finds creative ways to strike out hitters. He uses his cutter and his curveball to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. Let's play the Over on Civale for some early daytime action!
NYY at TB - 6:50 PM EDT
My numbers strongly disagree with this line on Nasty Nestor, as I was expecting this to be 6.5 at a juice of around -140 or so. I get that Tampa Bay has been hitting the ball well, but their lineup has struggled all year long to make solid contact against lefties like Cortes.
Yes, we faded the Rays on Tuesday and paid the price for it with a loss on Carlos Rodon. However, Rodon endured a nightmare first inning that really put a damper on his whole start by running up his pitch count way too early.
I don't see Cortes making that same mistake tonight at the Trop. Cortes has a respectable K-rate of 23.8% that ranks in the 60th percentile. Four TB hitters strike out at least 24% of the time, so give me another Over!
MIA at HOU- 8:10 PM EDT
Here's another juicy one, but Griffin Canning proved to us last night that sometimes the juice is worth the proverbial squeeze. There isn't a large sample size on Munoz, so that makes me a little nervous. However, I'll keep trusting this Houston lineup, which always seems to put the ball in play at a high rate.
What do we like about this play? Well, Munoz has stayed under this strikeouts number in 4 of his last 5 games. His fastball is pretty decent at 96 mph, but he's struggled with his other secondary pitches this year.
Munoz draws a tough road start against Houston tonight. The Astros usually fare well against righties, and 6 of their players strike out less than 20% of the time. Let's cap off the night with hopefully an easy Under!