It was another profitable night for the good guys, as we went a respectable 2-1 on Tuesday night. Brayan Bello pitched one of the best games of his young career and struck out 11 hitters to easily cash our Over ticket.
As predicted, Kenta Maeda got rocked by the Guardians bats and only struck out 2 hitters to get us to the window with the Under. Our lone loser was on Carlos Rodon, who just couldn't overcome an awful first inning against the Rays. Now that we're sitting at 153-116 for the season, let's get to the Wednesday MLB card.
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CLE at DET - 6:40 PM EDT
Well, we might as well start off with a scary Under to begin on Hump Day card. I'm a pretty big fan of Olson's, so it's a little difficult to fade him in this spot tonight. That said, I have to trust my numbers, which say this line should be 3.5 instead of 4.5.
Olson has outstanding stuff, but the problem is that this Cleveland lineup never seems to strike out that frequently against righties. The Guardians have 6 everyday players with K-rates below 19%. Also, these Cleveland hitters have struck out just 17.6% of the time against Olson in their combined career at-bats.
The Guardians faced Olson back on May 8th and, although they only scored 2 runs on him, they only struck out four times. We'll bet on that happening once against tonight in the Motor City. Play the Under!
LAD at PHI - 7:05PM EDT
Sanchez has had a fantastic season so far, but he's not striking out nearly as many guys as he did last year. His chase rate is still elite because of his above average slider, but he doesn't throw hard enough to get a ton of swings and misses.
The 27-year-old lefty also draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers tonight. LA should be a in a foul mood after getting blown out last night to the tune of 10-1. That's a result that almost no one saw coming!
The Boys in Blue have done an excellent job of putting the ball in play against southpaws this season. Four Dodger hitters have strikeout rates of less than 17.6%. This plus money Under is too good to pass up!
TEX at LAA- 9:38PM EDT
This one breaks my juice rule, but I think it's more than worth it. The Texas offense is finally finding its footing after a slow start to the season. All of the Rangers hitters look more comfortable at the plate and they've done a good job of limiting Ks against right-handers.
I don't see Griffin Canning doing much damage against Texas. Six of the Rangers regular starters strike out less than 20% of the time, and the only real strikeout target in the lineup is Adolis Garcia.
Canning has one of the worst K-rates in all of baseball at just 15.8% (9th percentile). His changeup is elite, but his other 4 pitches are well below average. Let's drink the juice and play yet another Under! Good luck tonight, sports betting family!