It was a tough night for the home crew, as our MLB picks stumbled to a 1-2 mark on Thursday. Both player props lost in ugly fashion, as our tickets on Michael Wacha and Miles Mikolas went up in smoke quickly.
Our only silver lining was the Minnesota Twins, who smacked around Jordan Montgomery to cash our series bet ticket. It's been another up and down week for us, and we're hoping to finish June off with a winning day! Good luck tonight, fellow sports investors!
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WSH at TB - 6:50 PM EDT
Parker's been a nice surprise for the Nats this season, and I expect him to do pretty well against this Rays lineup tonight. The 24-year-old has never faced Tampa Bay, so he should be able to get lots of swings and misses during his first trip through the lineup.
Parker only throws his fastball 92 mph, but with the great extension that he gets it looks more like 96 mph to the hitters. Tampa Bay isn't too terrible offensively, but they've struck out a ton this season against southpaws. The Rays have 5 everyday players with K-rates above 24%.
Though Parker's strikeout rate has been a bit underwhelming (19.4%), I do like that his chase rate is at a staggering 30.2%. That ranks in the 70th percentile in baseball, which tells me that he's due for some positive regression in the strikeout department. Let's kick things off with an Over!
NYY at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
I respect the heck out of Marcus Stroman. The veteran righty is a gamer who finds ways to get hitters out even when he doesn't have his best stuff. That being said, Stroman has never been one for striking out a lot of hitters.
In 112 plate appearances against Stroman, the Blue Jays have only struck out just 16.1% of the time. That's a pretty large sample size, which tells me that we can play this Under with confidence. Though Toronto has been disappointing this season, they still have 7 hitters with K-rates below 17.8%.
Stroman does a great job of getting ground balls, but his strikeout rate this season is just 17.6%. That only ranks in the 18th percentile. Anytime we get a low K starter against a team that puts the ball in play, we're taking a bite out of the Under!
PIT at ATL - 7:20 PM EDT
You just have to love a salty old dog like Charlie Morton. Heck, this guy is almost my age and he's still finding ways to get big league hitters out. The veteran righty doesn't throw as hard as he used to, but his curveball is still incredibly filthy when it's breaking hard.
Morton has a respectable K-rate of 24.1% this season, which ranks him in the 63rd percentile. His whiff rate has also stayed fairly high, mainly thanks to the aforementioned curveball. He's gone over this total in 4 of his last 6 starts.
I do like some of Pittsburgh's young players, but this team strikes out quite often. The P'Rats have one of the highest K-rates in the league against righties. Five Pittsburgh hitters strike out at least 24.8% of the time. Let's ride the Over to close out the Friday card!