Happy Monday, sports betting family! It's great to be back with y'all after a nice weekend off. Unfortunately, our MLB cold streak continued on Friday, as we stumbled to a 1-3 record.
In case you didn't know, betting on baseball is full of peaks and valleys. After profiting over 20 units in May, June has been pretty unkind to us. Overall though, we're still sitting at 130-102 for the season. Let's get hot again this week!
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CLE at BAL - 6:35 EDT
BetMGM is giving us a fantastic price on this prop and we're jumping on it. This will be our first walk prop of the season, and it's one I'm really excited about. Bibee is one of top starters on this Cleveland staff.
The 25-year-old righty has excellent command, especially for a guy that throws 95 mph with relative ease. Bibee has a walk rate this season of only 6.2%, which puts him in the 75th percentile. He has no trouble throwing each of his 4 pitches for strikes at anytime.
Baltimore is a good matchup for Bibee, at least when it comes to base on balls. The O's young hitters love to strike the bat, and they have one of the lowest walk rates in baseball against right-handers. Bibee has walked 1 batter or less in 10 of his 15 starts in 2024. The Under is the play!
SEA at TB - 6:50 EDT
Need a player prop to use for the BetMGM Monday promotion? I'm rolling with Bradley! On Monday, BetMGM gives each customer a Bet Insurance Token of up to $20 to use on any MLB pick. Here's a brief breakdown on how the promo works.
Opt into the promo on the BetMGM website or app and find the game or player you want to bet on. Make sure that you click the ADD PROMO button to use the token. If your wager doesn't win, BetMGM will give you a Bonus Bet to make up for the loss. How sweet is that?
Anyway, back to why I love Taj Bradley to mow down this Seattle lineup. The Mariners continue to have the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball, regardless of who is on the hill. Seven Seattle hitters have K-rates of over 26%.
Bradley doesn't have a ton of big league experience, but this kid has a live arm and a K-rate of 28.8%. That's good enough to put him in the 88th percentile. He should get 7 Ks with ease tonight! Take the Over!
WSH at SD - 9:40 EDT
How in the world is this line not 2.5 instead of 3.5? Corbin continues to be one of the worst starters in MLB, as evidenced by his expected ERA of 6.66 (geez, that's a bad omen). The 34-year-old relies primarily on ground balls to get through innings.
Corbin's K-rate is just 15.2% this season, which is only in the 9th percentile. To make matters worse, Corbin's lifetime strikeout rate against this San Diego lineup is just 7.1%!!!
That's one of the lowest I've ever seen, especially since Padres hitters have 84 combined plate appearances against him. Five San Diego hitters have K-rates under 17%. This Under is juicy, but it's a no-brainer!