Our Thursday MLB player props card finished up at 2-2. Thankfully, because our 2 winners were at plus money prices, we ended up making a few bucks. Ty Blach and Gavin Stone both got us to the cash-out window.
The two losers were on Logan Allen and Chris Flexen. Sportsbooks have been a bit slow to put up some of the strikeout props we're targeting. However, we did find 4 player props to kick our weekend off in style. Good luck, sports betting amigos!
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TB at PIT - 6:40 PM EST
I'm tired of waiting on the other books to post this line, so we'll lock it in now. If you want to play O6.5 later on for plus money at another shop, I wouldn't talk you out of it. My projection calls for at least 7 ks from Pepiot tonight.
The young righty has one of the liveliest arms in baseball, even though he's not a household name yet. Pepiot's K-rate of 28.6% ranks in the 86th percentile, which is simply incredible for a youngster.
Pepiot is still somewhat of a hidden gem, mainly because he plays in Tampa Bay. If this kid were in New York or LA, he'd be getting more hype. Pittsburgh should have lots of trouble with his 95-mph 4-seamer.
BOS at CIN - 7:10 PM EST
I know Cincy has been showing more discipline at the plate lately, but this line is all out of whack! The Reds still have 4 guys with K-rates above 24%, so Crawford should have plenty of strikeout opportunities.
It's tough banking on any kind of strong pitching performances at Great American Ballpark, but Crawford has the chops to go over this total. His K-rate of 24.6% is very good and his Whiff Rate is off the charts, thanks to a (wait for it) wicked CUTTER! (Sorry, I just had to) :)
In all seriousness, I don't know why this line is so low. Crawford is coming off back-to-back impressive performances against New York and Philly. He struck out 9 against the Yanks and 8 against the Phils. Let's play the Over!
TOR at CLE - 7:10 PM EST
This one breaks my juice rule, but it's just too good to pass up. Carrasco has been around since God said "Let there be light." The 37-year-old still has a decent slider, but his velocity has really fallen off over the last couple of seasons.
Carrasco should have a hard time getting strikeouts against this Toronto lineup. The Jays have one of the lowest K-rates in MLB against righties, and 7 of their guys strike out less than 17% of the time.
Need more proof that the Under is the play? Carrasco's K-rate is only 16.9% this season, which only ranks in the 15th percentile. His poor ERA of 5.80 also implies that he may not make it out of the 4th inning in this one.
SEA at MIA - 7:10 PM EST
I haven't dabbled in this market for quite a while, but this is a nice spot to bet on one of my favorite pitchers. Though Kirby has frustrated me at times this season, he's still the type of high strikeout / low walk pitcher that I love to back.
The 26-year-old righty gets good extension on his 96 mph sinker, so it looks more like 99 mph or so to the hitters. My only gripe with Kirby is that I wish he'd throw his 4-seamer up in the zone more around the letters. That would get him even more Ks, in my opinion.
That said, I love that Kirby has 6 dominant pitches. Even though he's only 6-5 this season, he's still a Top-20 pitcher in my book. Seattle just saw a lefty yesterday in Logan Allen, so hopefully that means that they'll get Kirby a few runs early against Trevor Rogers of the Fish.