We're back and better than ever after taking a nice Juneteenth holiday to watch the Tigers and Braves yesterday. It was incredible watching Tarik Skubal do battle with Reynaldo Lopez in person, and I was more than pleased with Atlanta's bats.
We ended up going 2-2 on Tuesday evening. Winners were on Nick Lodolo and Austin Gomber, and the losers were on Triston McKenzie (yuck) and Aaron Nola. Let's get back in the groove with 4 player props for Thursday. Enjoy the daytime baseball, fellow seamheads!
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SEA at CLE - 1:10 PM EST
Seattle's bats are coming around, but I'm not ready to jump off the train just yet. The M's still strike out a ton, as they have 8 players with K-rates above 26%. That factor alone makes me think that this number should be 5.5 instead of 4.5.
Allen carved up this Seattle lineup for 6 Ks back on April 3rd and a similar result here wouldn't surprise me in the least. The young lefty is not a bigtime strikeout pitcher, but his offspeed stuff is good enough to get us at least 5 Ks in today's game against the Mariners.
Oddsmakers have Allen's outs prop at 15.5, which means that he's likely to pitch at least 5 innings in this outing. All we need is 1 K per inning to cash this one. I like our chances with this Over!
HOU at CWS - 2:10 PM EST
We cashed another U3.5 on Tuesday night with Austin Gomber, and this seems like another good spot to do so with Mr. Flexen. Want to hear the main metric that made me place this bet? Through 79 career plate apperances against Houston hitters, Flexen's K-rate is only 8.9%!!!
That number isn't a fluke, either. Flexen has an overall strikeout rate of just 17.6% this season. In his last 2 outings, the young righty only struck out 2 against Arizona and 3 against Boston.
Flexen's ERA of 5.35 suggests that this could be a fairly short outing for him, especially against this powerful Houston lineup. It also doesn't hurt that the Astros have 6 players with K-rates under 18.3%. Give me the Under!
LAD at COL - 3:10 PM EST
Look out, folks! Mikey Nobs has lost his mind again by playing another low K prop to stay Under the total. I know that this is a hard wager to make, but the matchup heavily favors the Under in this spot for Blach.
The Dodgers have one of the lowest K-rates in MLB against southpaws. Even with Mookie Betts on the IL, LA still has 6 players with K-rates under 20.4%. Look for Blach to only last 4 or 5 innings at the most in this one.
Blach has nice command, but his stuff isn't all that great. His K-rate of only 12.4% puts him in the 2nd percentile of MLB. Also, his whiff rate is the lowest in baseball among starting pitchers. The Under is the play!
LAD at COL - 3:10 PM EST
I just can't resist this juicy price on Stone, even though he doesn't have the best K-rate in the world. That being said, Stone has a lively fastball and a changeup that can make hitters look silly, even in Coors Field.
If you want to play the line at O4.5 instead of O5.5, I completely understand. FanDuel has that option with the juice around -156 or so. However, the Rockies strike out so much that I'm willing to play the plus money.
Colorado has 6 players that strike out more than 25% of the time. Oddsmakers have Stone's outs prop at 17.5, so he will probably go 6 innings today. All we need is the usual 1K per inning to cash this. Let's do it!