Tuesday night was another terrific outing for the good guys, as we swept the board with a 4-0 performance. The strikeout props continue to be a huge money-maker for us and I'm really going to zero in on them in the coming weeks. Like we say out here in the country, "ride the horse til she dies."
Wednesday's board also looks promising, as we found 5 player props that show some positive EV. Let's put today in the Win column! Best of luck, my friends!
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I was hoping that this was going to be Jack Flaherty, but Skubal will do. The juice isn't ideal, but I made this line 7.5 instead of 6.5. Skubal has a median K number of 6 this season, but that has to be adjusted upward because of Pittsburgh's tendency to swing and miss.
Skubal didn't do too well last week in his outing against the Royals, but I expect him to get back on track nicely today. This Pirates lineup is flat out terrible, so Skubal should mow them down with his 96 mph sinker.
The 27-year-old from Seattle University has a K-rate of 31.2% and his Chase Rate ranks in the 92nd percentile. With numbers that pretty, I don't mind laying a little juice. Take the Over!
Wow! This line just looks all out of whack! Peterson has great stuff, as he gets good extension on his 93 mph 4-seamer. However, the 28-year-old will be making his first start of the season.
You have to wonder just how many pitches Peterson will throw in this one. Sure, these two teams played a doubleheader yesterday, so both starters may get a longer leash. That said, I look for the Mets to be careful with Peterson since it's his first start.
Peterson had a median K number of just 5 last season. We're adjusting that downward because the Dodgers don't strike out very often against lefties. Grab this price at FanDuel while you can!
I like Ober quite a bit, so it's hard to fade him in this spot. However, the Royals are one of my go-to teams for playing Unders on K props. Kansas City's lineup is packed with youngsters that put the ball in play, especially against righties.
Ober has faced 75 batters in his career against this Royals lineup. His K-rate over that span is just 18.7%. I really think this is a case where the books' algorithm used the median to set this line without making any adjustment for the opponent.
Kansas City has 7 players with K-rates under 18.6%. That's enough for me to ride this Under, even though the 6'9" Ober can be quite intimidating.
We tried to play Mike Clevinger Under last night against this Jays lineup, but he was put on the IL before the game started. Let's try again tonight with Chris Flexen, who doesn't have strikeout type of stuff.
Flexen only strikes out 17.1% of hitters and his Whiff Rate only ranks in the 13th percentile. He also has a K-rate of just 15.5% against Toronto in his career. Flexen's ERA of 5.69 tells us that it could be a short night for him.
Toronto has 5 players with strikeout rates below 18.1%. Look for Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette to knock Flexen out of this one early. The Under looks mighty good!
I like George Kirby, but something has been off with him lately. His velocity is still good and he still doesn't walk many batters. That said, he's been getting hit pretty hard over his last few starts.
Kirby's ERA is sitting at 4.33, mainly because he's not been getting nearly as many ground balls as he used to. I think he'll figure things out, but this Houston lineup has seen him quite often.
The Lastros only struck out 3 times against Kirby back on May 3rd. I look for a similar outing tonight. Let's play another Under to put a bow on the Wednesday card!