Well, well… As I have speculated about the last few articles, we are seeing DRAMATIC drops in pitcher spin rates over the past few days as MLB puts in place tools to crack down on sticky-fingers-gate. You can find lots of details in this article from Frank Stampfl, but make sure to check the drops on some of MLB’s top pitchers including Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Trevor Bauer.
If this weekend is any indication, expect batting averages and ERAs to go up this week. Will strikeouts go down? Yes, they will. Will this be an opportunity to make some money while the algos adjust? Yes, it is.
On to the under-K watch…
Rays @ White Sox, 8:10 pm ET
Tyler Glasnow of the Rays strikes me as the first pitcher who will have some problems adjusting. He has been brilliant with 117 strikeouts in 84 innings and has regularly hit double digit K’s in his outings. Since I’m running with the thought that every pitcher will be impacted, I’m going to take the under 8.5 line and +103 from DraftKings.
Padres @ Rockies, 8:40 pm ET
The Padres’ Dinelson Lamet is next on my list. This is a combination of things and pitching in Colorado has a lot to do with it. The Borgata has the over/under set at 6.5 and I’ll take the under.
Angels @ Athletics, 9:40 pm ET
Next up on my hit list is the A’s Sean Manaea. He’s been a dependable 1 strikeout an inning guy, but I think he’s going to have some issues tonight with this Angels lineup and will take the +120 and under 5.5 from BetMGM.
Come back again — same bat-channel — Batman out!