If you didn’t see my note on Twitter yesterday, I took the day off because of two reasons: 1. I didn’t like the odds I was seeing and 2. The odds for strikeouts are being posted too damn close to game time, which would mean you, the readers I care about, wouldn’t have enough time to decide what to do. Come on bookies, pick up the pace!
On another note, strikeouts are WAYYY up this season – players are currently striking out at a whopping 24.5% rate. Unfortunately, while you, my friends in the K-Fanbox, might enjoy the watching part, it’s not helping bettors. Why? Because the algos that make the odds lines are keeping up with that rate and adjusting in real time. It also means that when we are looking at the past as a predictor it isn’t so accurate – so keep that in mind.
Yankees @ Orioles, 7:05 pm ET
It’s odd to see Matt Harvey wearing an Orioles uniform – I will always envision him as a Met. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been terribly productive since those years in Queens. This year he’s gotten his K rate back up to a strikeout an inning, but he has yet to crack more than 5 innings in a single start. Can he do so against a Yankees team just starting to turn things around? I don’t think so. I think he lasts ~4.1 and doesn’t hit above 4 K’s, so I’m going with the under 4.5 line at -175.
Cubs @ Braves, 7:10 pm ET
Just like clockwork, it’s Charlie Morton day again. If you haven’t been paying attention, I’ve gotten my Morton pick wrong every time out this season, so it’s likely I’ll be wrong again. Morton has struck out 15 over his last 12 innings, so The over/under is at 7.5 and I’m picking the under – given my past history you’d be wise to bet against me – but you never know, maybe this is the day I turn things around??!
Marlins @ Brewers, 7:40 pm ET
Who doesn’t love what Corbin Burnes has done this season? He’s had 4 starts, 24.1 innings pitched, only given up 1 run, and has had a mind-blowing 40 K. He has yet to go more than 6.1 innings pitched in a game, but who cares?? Unfortunately for us, the algo knows how good he is and has put the over/under at 9.5. Can Burnes keep on burnin’? I think so. I’ll take the over and the -143 that comes with it.
Come back again — same bat-channel — Batman out!