What am I doing picking day games? Eh, I woke up early, looked at the matchups – and didn’t like what I saw in the late games. I thought about doing some picks other than K’s, but, like Mark Twain may have said: "Write what you know" (which he didn’t do and luckily neither did many of my favorite sci-fi authors – maybe it’s better to say, "Write what you want to know?")
Here’s what I think about Madison Bumgarner – he shouldn’t be a starting pitcher right now. In his last 3 starts he’s given up 6 earned runs in 4, 5 ER in 5, and another 6 ER in 4.2. Why do the DBacks keep throwing him out there? Well, they don’t have better options is one reason, but the other is that he still has flashes of great stuff – in that last 4.2 IP outing he also struck out 5. Overall he’s averaging a K an inning. If it were me, I’d make him a closer. So, let’s look at today's line – the over/under is set at 4.5. Will he last 5 to get 5? I think he will but will also give up 5. So let’s take the over at -114.
Boston is rolling out rookie Tanner Houck to face Chicago today and there is a lot to like about him. In his first start against the Marlins he struck out 8 over 5 innings against the Orioles. The White Sox don’t strike out as much as the Orioles, but I think he can muster the over 4.5 line I’m seeing at +120.
Robbie Ray takes the mound for Toronto and I usually find the oddsmakers ignore his K rate for some reason. He had a horrible 2020, but didn’t we all? If we go back to 2019, he had 235 K to 174.1 IP. If we look at 2018, he had 165K to 123.2 IP. Ah, you say, but that was in the NL where pitchers risk life and limb at the plate only to usually strikeout! Well, yes, this is true, but even in his crappy 2020 year with the Blue Jays in the AL he struck out 25 in 20.2. The line I’m seeing is over 5.5 +110 and I’m rolling the dice with it.
Come back again — same bat-channel — Batman out!