MLB Sunday - Frank Picks Rockies v Mets, Braves v Marlins, Cardinals v Cubs, Syndergaard, Hoffman, Hendricks, Wainwright
Side of the Day:
Rockies (+154) over Mets
Stack of the Day:
Braves at Marlins First 5 Under 4
Braves at Marlins Game Under 7.5
Primetime Pick of the Day:
Cardinals at Cubs under 5 First 5
The Skinny:
Who is Noah Syndergaard to be over a -150 favorite against anyone right now? Sometimes, baseball prices can be inflated based on the pedigree of a starting pitcher despite that pitcher underachieving in the current season. That’s certainly the case today at Citi Field. Syndergaard’s numbers are very pedestrian so far in 2019 and the season has gone on long enough to assume it’s not an aberration. Colorado starter Jeff Hoffman is nothing to write home about, but if the Rockies can get this game into the late innings no worse than down one run, expect them to find a way to win with the superior bullpen . . .
I’d double down on the under in Miami today. Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has posted a 1.84 ERA in five home starts and opponents are hitting just .176 against him in those five starts. He’s also struck out 31 and walked just five in the pitcher-friendly ballpark. I’m also in on Max Fried being a top of the rotation starter for a while in Atlanta. The young southpaw has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3:1 so far this year, and has gone at least five innings in all but one of his starts in 2019. I’d expect two runs or less in the first five here which gives me five runs to spare in the last four . . .
Why not end with a Sunday Night Baseball pick? Thanks to a certain hockey game being played in St. Louis tonight, I’m not sure St. Louis sports fans have ever cared less about a game against the Cubs. That said, here are the batter vs. pitcher splits for tonight’s starters at Wrigley Field –
>>> St. Louis Cardinals hitters vs Kyle Hendricks:
227 AB, .242 BA, .320 OBA, .352 SLG.
>>> Chicago Cubs hitters vs Adam Wainwright:
222 AB, .212 BA, .299 OBA, .356 SLG.
It’s safe to expect less than one run per inning in the first five tonight in Chicago.