MLB Wednesday Best Bets: Phillies vs Cardinals, Rockies vs Diamondbacks, Mets vs Dodgers, Blue Jays vs Rays

Favorite of the day: Phillies (-158) over Cardinals

Underdog Pick of the Day: Rockies (+109) over Diamondbacks

Over of the Day: Mets at Dodgers (7.5)

Under of the Day: Blue Jays at Rays (4 – First Five)

The Skinny: Wednesday night seems like a good time for the 2018 version of Aaron Nola to show up. The Cardinals are scuffling, Nola hasn’t been great at Citizens Bank Park but his splits at home are significantly better than they are on the road and the Phillies are just playing well at the moment. Philadelphia has won eight of its last 11 games and now has the second best record in the National League. Nola keeps the positive momentum going tonight. . . . We mentioned on Monday that Arizona is primed for some regression as the calendar flips to June. Unfortunately we took the Rockies run line and Colorado won 4-3 in 11 innings which did not cover the run and the hook. However, after Monday’s loss and another loss yesterday, the Diamondbacks are now 3-7 in their last 10 games and that regression we expected appears to have arrived. Colorado is a good positive regression candidate as the Rockies were widely viewed as the Dodgers top competition in the NL West after getting to a 163rd game at Dodger Stadium last season. The Rockies are now just one game behind Arizona in the NL West and we like them to win three straight over their division rival Wednesday. . . . Noah Syndergaard can’t be trusted right now and at 7.5, the total indicates he’s pitching at an above average level. Walker Buehler has started to look more like the top prospect he was in the Dodgers organization recently, but has still been a little too sketchy in 2019 to warrant this total. A full game total of 7.5 is usually something you see when there’s at least one ace on the mound. These two pitchers have that kind of name profile, but statistically haven’t been good enough. . . . Speaking of aces, Blake Snell is one. With approximately one-third of the baseball season in the books, a Snell AL Cy Young Award repeat isn’t looking likely, but Toronto has had problems scoring in this series against Tampa Bay so Snell probably isn’t what the doctor ordered for the Blue Jays. Expect him to put up enough goose eggs to where unless the Tampa Bay bats explode, the first five innings total will land under four.