Three places at Ellis Park in Western Kentucky make up our plays on this summer Sunday. We expect fast dirt and firm turf for all three; let’s go.
Ellis Park, Race 5, 2:45 pm ET
$225,000 Bashford Manor Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds
In stakes races for 2-year-olds this time of year, handicapping is mostly speculation, figuring out which colts will move forward off maiden wins. The one of the seven who go in the Bashford Manor who to us looks the likeliest to do so is 5-The Wine Steward, who won at 5 furlongs in his career debut a month ago at Belmont Park, but whose pedigree and running style suggest he will get better as the distances get longer. We see him getting a good trip sitting just behind what should be a robust early pace, and finishing strongly when the early leaders get the staggers. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Ellis Park, Race 5, $40 to win on 5-The Wine Steward.
Ellis Park, Race 7, 3:50 pm ET
$175,000 Anchorage Overnight Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Eight go in the Anchorage. We like 1-Sweet Dani Girl to win the race in gate-to-wire fashion: she has had the lead in each of her last three starts; she got passed late in each of them, but they were against tougher fields than she will face here, and we think that facing lesser company will allow her to carry her speed all the way through the finish line. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Ellis Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 1-Sweet Dani Girl.
Ellis Park, Race 8, 4:22 pm ET
$175,000 Maxfield Overnight Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
An interesting group of eleven 3-year-olds lines up for the Maxfield. We think there’s a chance for an absolute pace collapse, a situation where the early fractions are so radioactive that they cook not just the horses in front, but the ones just behind them, too. This would set the table for a winner coming from far back, and we think that just might be 4-Navy Man, who will be rolling late. This colt, like all deep closers, be will dependent on what happens in front of him – put another way, if the early pace is not suicidally fast, he has no chance – but we think the race shape may favor him enough that he merits a play at 15-1. We will bet him to win. The bet: Ellis Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 4-Navy Man.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.