It’s hard to believe, but the Breeders Cup is in just three weeks. That leaves the stakes schedule a little light, as the best horses currently in the country have all run their prep races, and will be training up to the big event.
Into this void, fortuitously enough, is the biggest day of the year for steeplechasers: the one-day Far Hills meeting in New Jersey is a nice addition to the national simulcast schedule. We have plays in five races today, two each from Far Hills and Keeneland, and one from Aqueduct. We expect fast dirt and firm turf at Keeneland, yielding turf in New York, and good turf in New Jersey. Let’s go.
Far Hills, Race 5, 3:29 pm ET
$100,000 John Forbes Memorial Stakes, 2 miles, Turf, 4 & Up
Five of the six races at Far Hills this afternoon are over jumps, but the Forbes is on the flat: it’s fourteen older horses running two miles on the sod. The distance is key, we think, as it’s farther than any of them have run before, and it looks like quite a few will have trouble staying the 16 furlongs.
The pick is 8-Agitaire. He’s a 5-year-old gelding who was bred in Ireland, where he had a long if not particularly distinguished career, with two wins in 31 career starts. While it’s true that he was not a win machine on the other side of the pond, there are three things why we think he will win this race, which is his North American debut: The first is that he should have no trouble with the distance; the second is that he has run well on the kind of softer turf he will get today; and the third, and probably most important, is that he ran pretty well in some pretty good races earlier this year, in particular a third-place finish in a Group 3 race at Leopardstown in May. The winner that day was a horse named Kyprios, probably the best stayer in Europe, who has won multiple Group 1 races in 2022 and who would be 1/99 if he were entered here. So the fact that Agitaire was able to finish third behind him, even beaten by 15 lengths, makes us think he has a good shot at beating this nondescript group of American horses. We will bet Agitaire to win at 8-1. The bet: Far Hills, Race 5, $40 to win on 8-Agitaire.
Far Hills, Race 6, 4:05 pm ET
Grade 1 Grand National, 2⅝ miles, Turf (Hurdles), 4 & Up
The Grand National is the biggest jump race of the year in North America, and this renewal attracted a deep field of nine. It’s a fascinating race to handicap, as the top American jumper, 2-Snap Decision, who has had a terrific season, takes on a number of imposing European imports.
One of those imposing Euros, in fact, is the pick: 5-Hewick comes off a series of good races in Ireland, including a win in the prestigious Galway Plate in July. His run that day was incredible, as he beat 20 other horses on a fairly narrow course, and did so despite being bumped repeatedly down the stretch by a riderless horse. We think that if Hewick can overcome that kind of adversity, then winning this is going to seem like a walk in the park. He simply looks better than the rest, and we will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Far Hills, Race 6, $50 to win on 5-Hewick.
Keeneland, Race 8, 4:44 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Seven go in this first-level allowance at Keeneland. We’re all in on the one who drew the rail, 1-Ain’t Broke, who comes into this race off a layoff, having last run at the Fair Grounds in March, but who has abundant speed, and whose morning workouts the past few weeks suggest that she will be ready to use it. We see Ain’t Broke going right to the front, and not looking back; we will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Ain’t Broke.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 4:58 pm ET
Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
The headliner in the Sands Point is 9-Pizza Bianca, the winner of last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, who comes off an ill-considered trip to the Royal Ascot meeting, where she finished a well-beaten 8th in the Group 1 Coronation Cup. We like her presence in this race, not because we like her as a wagering proposition – we wouldn’t bet her with counterfeit money – but because she will inflate the prices of the other runners.
We like 5-Spirit and Glory. She’s an English-bred filly with a nice turf pedigree, who has done some nice things since being brought to the U.S. last spring. We particularly like her last race, when she beat thirteen other fillies to win the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs. She showed a serious turn of foot that day, closing very strongly to prevail by over a length. We see a similar setup, and a similar result, for Spirit and Glory today, which makes her 8-1 price positively irresistible, especially since she has run well on soft turf before. We will bet her to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $40 to win on 5-Spirit and Glory.
Keeneland, Race 9, 5:16 pm ET
Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
Seven go in the Queen Elizabeth, and the handicapping question is a simple one: Can any of the other six beat morning line favorite 6-McKulick? She’s run three times this year, all in turf stakes, and won two of them, with her only defeat a hard-luck runner-up finish in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational in August. She is clearly the one to beat, but will be a minuscule price, probably something on the order of 2/5, and is therefore unplayable.
The one we think has the best chance of beating her is 7-Paris Peacock. She is a fresh face, having raced to this point exclusively in Ireland, where she was bred, and she comes into this race off a pari of excellent starts, the most recent a Group 3 win at Gowran Park a month ago. Paris Peacock has her work cut out for her in trying to beat McKulick, but at 10-1, we are willing to take a shot that she can pull it off. We will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9, $40 to win on 7-Paris Peacock.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.