We have a snowy installment of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping. when we wager on a group of races going off in rapid sequence, on this January Friday. There is a big storm brewing on the East Coast today, so it’s a perfect occasion, whether you will be affected by the storm or not, to pour about three fingers of one of the fine, hand-crafted concoctions from our friends at Dad’s Hat Rye, settle into an easy chair, and watch horses run in circles. We have five plays today, in five races that go off in about 45 minutes’ time, and we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, except as noted below. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:50 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, DIrt, New York-breds 4 & Up
The main track at Aqueduct was listed as fast on Friday morning, but with snow expected throughout the day, we are expecting on off track, something on the order of muddy, by post time of this second-level allowance, which features seven New York-breds lining up to sprint six furlongs.
The pick is 7-Gongheifatchoy. His last race, a runner-up finish last November, was good, and he has abundant speed, an outside post position, and he’s run well enough in the past on off tracks for us to think he’ll take to the snowy going today. We think he will be shorter than his 15-1 morning line number by post time, but he will still be a square price, and that makes him an excellent play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $35 to win on 7-Gongheifatchoy.
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 4:11 pm
Handicap, 1 mile 70 yards, Synthetic, 4 & Up
Nine line up for today’s featured race at Gulfstream Park. While we are not the biggest fan of the new synthetic Tapeta surface down in South Florida, this is a good betting race, as any one of the nine could win.
We like 4-Why Not Tonight: he comes a good win in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last November, and while that race, like most of his starts, was on turf, he has both the pedigree and the running style to suggest that he take to synthetic. We will bet him to win at 15-1 odds. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $30 to win on 4-Why Not Tonight.
Oaklawn Park, Race 7, 4:19 pm ET
$50,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
This maiden race in Arkansas drew a field of eleven lightly raced 3-year-olds. We like 5-Oiler, who makes his first start in maiden claiming company after three tries against Maiden Special Weight ranks. As we’ve mentioned before, this is the biggest class drop in racing, but it is probably even bigger at Oaklawn than it is at other tracks, as the Maiden Special Weight races there are the toughest in the country. Oiler has good tactical speed, and as he was competitive in his prior races, he looks like he can handle this group. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 5-Oiler.
Santa Anita, Race 3, 4:33 pm ET
$20,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Eight go in this maiden race at Santa Anita. Seven of them have already tried at this level – the lowest level of maiden racing carded at Santa Anita – and the fact that they are entered here means that all seven failed to win. That makes the pick the other one, 8-Sideways Suances, who ran for $45k in his most recent start. His outside post is no bargain, but he has enough tactical speed, we think, to avoid getting hung too wide around the first turn, which comes quickly in these mile dirt races in Arcadia. And if he can avoid giving up too much ground early, we think he can beat this slow group of inveterate non-winners, and can do so at fairly generous 5-1 odds. We will bet him to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 3, $35 to win on 8-Sideways Suances.
Fair Grounds, Race 6, 4:35 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Nine fillies and mares line up for this maiden turf sprint in New Orleans, which should be run on good turf (ground with a bit of give to it). At first glance, one of them, 5-Frosteria, a gray 4-year-old Godolphin homebred, would appear to be a strong bet-against: she’s run 10 times, and finished second an astounding eight times. It would seem that she has the physical ability to win, but lacks the mental toughness to reach the wire first.
But a deeper dive into her past performances reveals something that we don’t recall ever seeing: she has actually finished first twice, once at Delaware Park in October and once at the Fair Grounds last month – and was disqualified both times. That puts to rest any concerns we have about her determination, and since her form is superior to her rivals, that makes her the play. We will bet Frosteria to win at 2-1. The bet: Fair Grounds, Race 6, $40 to win on 5-Frosteria.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.