We have four plays on this November Sunday, a pair of $100,000 state-bred stakes races, one on each coast, sandwiched around two allowance races in Kentucky. They are all good betting contests, and we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all four, so let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:43 pm ET
$100,000 Key Cents Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred 2-Year-Old Fillies
Eight go in the Key Cents. We see no reason to look past favored 6-Classy Edition, who is undefeated in two career starts, including her last, when she took the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes against fellow state-breds on September 24 at Belmont Park. Her speed figures mark her as the one to beat, and so does her running style: she is a stalker in a field that is filled with speed, which should give her an ideal trip, sitting behind what should be fast fractions early, ready to pounce when the pacesetters begin to tire down the stretch. She has yet to run on a fast track -- her two races were on wet tracks -- and while one might think that her performances were aided by the going, we think that she may just be even better on fast dirt. Add it up, and we are taking Classy Edition to the windows: we will bet her to win at 9/5. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $50 to win on 6-Classy Edition.
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 3:36 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3 & Up
The 6th at Churchill Downs drew a salty field of seven older allowance runners. As a group, they are pretty talented, but there is a noticeable lack of early speed among them, which we think should allow 7-Beaver Hat, the only one with even moderate early zip, to get a dream trip, leading while running very moderate fractions, and that will make him very difficult to catch. We think Beaver Hat can wire this group, and will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 6, $35 to win on 7-Beaver Hat.
Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:36 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
This tough second-level allowance dirt sprint drew a field of eleven. We are against favored 11-Beverly Park, not because there’s anything wrong with him, but solely because his edge is much slighter than his 8/5 morning line odds would indicate.He could win, but he’s an underlay, and that makes this a good spot to take a shot with a price.
The price we like is 2-Isolate. He comes off a couple of good races in South Florida, but has been transferred to new trainer Tom Amoss, who has put a couple of fast workouts into him in recent weeks. We like this, as it’s a sign of fitness, and it might also be an indication that Isolate could be ready for a new career-best race, something that is very much within the realm of possibility, as he’s a 3-year-old who still appears to have a bit of upside. We think he’s a major contender, and at 8-1, we will bet him to win. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $35 to win on 2-Isolate.
Del Mar, Race 8, 7:00 pm ET
$100,000 Cary Grant Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, California-breds 3 & Up
The Cary Grant drew a field of seven Cal-breds. The pick is 4-Colt Fiction, who spent the summer running some good allowance races at Del Mar, in which he ran well enough that trainer Bill Spawr ran him in a Grade 2 at Santa Anita in October. He did not win that day, but he didn’t embarrass himself either, running fourth, and he faced some pretty salty company -- the winner was Dr. Schivel, who went on to finish second, beaten only a nose, in the Breeders Cup Sprint. We think Colt Fiction is going to find the competition offered by this group of state-breds to be much, much easier than the open company (i.e. horses bred in other states) that he has been facing. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Del Mar, Race 8, $40 to win on 4-Colt Fiction.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.