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What a difference a week makes. Lovely weather up and down the East Coast with temperatures warm enough to dry the turf out but still comfortable. Expect turf races to be on today, even if a passing storm comes through. Today, Mick will be mixing it up by focusing on the Pick 6 at Monmouth Park. With a $130K+ carry over and a diversity of races available in Races 9 through 14, today will be about making horizontal wagers work for you.
Picks for July 27, 2019:
Really nice in the shade. Getting warm in the sun. Should be dry enough to keep turf races on.
Monmouth Race 9
A turf route for older boys means lots of old class horses that could jump up and make this a challenging first leg. Considering the track bias which has been very speed favoring all meet and especially so recently, early speed is important here. 5-Summer Mischief fits that bill to a T. Adding stalker 6-Senior Louie and closer 9-Spring Up to the ticket should give desired coverage. Leaving 2-Mission Driven off the ticket is a concern as this one is consistent and comes from a top conditioner.
$10 W/P/S 5-Summer Mischief
Pick Six: 5,6,9
Monmouth Race 10
An NJ bred race with lots of hard knockers but very little top quality even if you look way back. Instead, using best recent form with significant progression over multiple races to get a single on 4-Lucky Lover Boy. He woke up two back and just missed before breaking his maiden last time. He is definitely moving in the right direction and gets leading jockey Nik Juarez in the saddle. He is a worthy single.
$10 W/P/S 4-Lucky Lover Boy
Pick Six: 4
Monmouth Race 11
Back to the turf and another single. 1-Curluck stands out here. Top barn, top rider, top form. Don’t buck the odds here and embrace the obvious. Additional coverage from 6-Here Comes Jackie who is dropping out of Stakes races but it shouldn’t be needed.
$10 W/P/S 1-Curluck
Pick Six: 1, (6)
Monmouth Race 12
Maiden girls sprinting with angles everywhere, most of them negative. The first challenge is what to do with the firsters. Either embrace or discard. Mick will discard here since neither have impressive work tabs nor come from barns that excel with firsters. Then the decision needs to be made around the layoff horses, the 2, 4 and 5 are all 170+ days from their last races. Of the three, 4-Stonewalker needs to be included based on connections and breeding. The return to a sprint distance should help and she should be sharp off the break. The others need more ground. For the rest, 1-Elegant Rose appears to be the best option despite her recent form. The cut back in distance may be what she needs but trust these connections to be live here and this one could be lone speed with a good break.
$10 W/P/S 1-Elegant Rose
Pick Six: 1,4
Monmouth Race 13
A turf route for fillies is all about class and connections. None of these are very good horses and would be much cheaper on dirt but this is the bottom turf condition for non2 lifetime horses. Having saved some money with the earlier singles, it is time to spread here. Using the only true closer in the field, 2-Luna, is a must since there will be speed. Including the top returning finishers from this race 2 weeks ago, 7-Jonimarie and 6-Sweet Blame, is a must. Lastly, 9-Discreet Cathy, is shipping in for trainer Ed Coletti, one of the top ship-in trainers in the Mid Atlantic. If this one got on the bus, she is live.
$10 W/P/S 9-Discreet Cathy
Pick Six: 2,6,7,9
Monmouth Race 14
And end the day with a cheap condition claimer. Very little consistent form to build on here. 2-What to Expect needs to be included and should be the single for anyone looking to save money at the back end of the card. This mare has been close before and the trainer is too good over time to remain winless but he is winless ay Monmouth this season. Therefore, coverage from 1-Resonate who should be on the lead from the rail, 4-Rose M who will be on the pace, too, and 5-Love That Chick, the committed closer in the field, is in order. It would be a shame to be alive to the last and not have enough coverage in this crap shoot of a race.
$10 W/P/S 2-What to Expect
Pick Six: 1,2,4,5
So the $0.20 Pick 6 ticket is $19.20. So much fun for less than $20!!!!
Mick’s Quickie’s
Laurel Race 6: 7-Little Skiff is flying under the radar here. Awesome turf sprinting family and a winner last out who should appreciate the extra ground. A good trip gets its done.
Parx Race 3: 4-Tale of Fire definitely wins for frequent flyer miles. Fort Erie to Meydan to Delaware to Gulfstream to Monmouth to here. He is faster than these on recent form but may be short priced.
Delaware Race 3: 6-Ventriloquism debuts here for a barn having a banner year. He is by a red hot sire that is getting winners sprinting on turf. Ka-ching.
Saratoga Race 9 – Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap G1: 1-Mitole is all class and arrives here off a brief freshening. It will take a career best from any of the others to win.
Penn National Race 4: Adding this one because it is one of the best head to head match ups of the day. 3-Bon Heir enters with the best recent speed figures and good results against tough company. 4-Lonely Drifter enters on a 7 race win streak that has taken her to Laurel, Charles Town and Mountaineer but she makes her Penn National debut here. Others have talent, too. A really good race for the 4th at Penn National. Mick is going with 3-Bon Heir.