Thoroughbreds Thursday - McMudder Picks Races at Belmont Park, Laurel; Manila Stakes

Happy Fourth of July. It’s hot and humid . . . of course.

Beware of the hot horse. And by that, Mick means the hot and sweaty horse. Horses are more like humans when it comes to sweating on a hot day than like dogs or other mammals. They need to stay cool to maintain fluid balance, especially since most have been treated with prerace Lasix, a diuretic used to treat pulmonary bleeding. So if they get too sweaty before a race, they don’t have the fluids to maintain proper electrolyte balance during the race. And electrolyte supplements are forbidden in most jurisdictions on race days. So beware the hot horse, they may leave their race in the paddock.

Weather: Sunny and warmer with possible late day showers.

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Belmont Race 8 (5:18 p.m. ET) – The Manila Stakes

4-Pole Setter looks to repeat recent stakes success following his return to the turf. This one is on a two-race win streak but stretches out an additional furlong here. Hot barn, hoping for a cool horse. 5-Casa Creed has been running with better and should benefit from the class relief after running excellent races in a pair of G2s. The trip two back in the American at Churchill demonstrated that this one may need the shorter trip of today’s race. 7-Win Win Win was too good on the dirt to not get a shot in both the Derby and the Preakness but finally gets on the turf, the intended surface from his first career race. Solid turf pedigree and a good turf work. 6-Fog of War makes up for his lack of experience by being a G1 winner. Of course, that was last September and the one race since then was poor. Trainer Chad Brwon gets them ready for these kinds and his pedigree is top notch for distance and surface.

Belmont Race 8
$10 W/P/S 4-Pole Setter
$2 Exacta box 4,5
$1 Trifecta box 4,5,6,7
$0.10 Superfecta box 4,5,6,7

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Laurel Race 6 (3:47 p.m.)

This should be a stakes race. Lots of quality in here led by 3-Phlash Phelps who has won better races but is on a two-year losing streak. Trainer Rodney Jenkins is patient but this is now an 8-year-old. 4-John Jones has been kicked in the head a few times, too, since last winning on turf. His figs say he is better on dirt but trainer Lacey Gaudet appears to want to keep this one on turf. 6-Dark Templer appears to be the youngin’ most likely to break up this old guys party. He has been good since his long layoff, and won last out on turf. A progression since then puts him in play. Others will take more money due to connections so the price should be fair.

Laurel Race 6
$10 W/P/S 6-Dark Templer
$2 Exacta [6/3]-4
$1 Trifecta box 3,4,6

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MICK’S QUICKIES

Belmont Race 5 (3:40 p.m.)
1-Dr Post deserves to get hammered at the windows. Bet to win or bet against to show. Not much else to be done.

Belmont Race 7 (4:45 p.m.)
4-Lucky Bet looks to give connections an instant return on the claim. Gets a soft field and the right jockey to do just that.

Laurel Race 1 (1:10 p.m.)
2-Sir Orinoco has been knocking hard at this door. Today he gets in and may get claimed, too.

Laurel Race 8 (4:52 p.m.)
3-Brenda’s G L P likes to run second on turf. Bet her to place in this cavalry charge.

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