Thoroughbreds Tuesday - Garrity Picks Indiana Grand
We're playing the card at Indiana Grand. They have a 10-race program, and the weather is supposed to be good. We're expecting the main track to be fast, and the turf to be firm. Let's go . . .
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Race 1 (2:15 p.m.; all times Eastern) is a conditioned $5,000 claimer for Indiana-breds 3 and older. There's a field of eight, and the outside horse, 8-Gio Pantera, appears to have this field over a barrel. He's got superior speed figs, and is dropping in class from allowance company. And he has the coveted outside post in this one-turn race. We will bet him to win at 8-5, and we'll also (see below) bet him in the early Double with 5-Miss Artie.
Indiana Grand Race 1
$35 W on 8-Gio Pantera
$25 Double 8-5
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Race 2 (2:43 p.m.) is an allowance race at a mile on the turf for Indiana-bred fillies and mares 3 and older. This is interesting, because the two favorites, 2-Unbridled Class (4-5), and 6-Marina's Legacy (2-1) are speed horses. We see the two of them going too fast early, and setting up the race for a closer. And the best closer in the field is 5-Miss Artie. This 8-year-old mare is not exactly a win machine − she's 3-for-32 lifetime − but she has hit the money frequently, with 15 in-the-money finishes in those 32 starts. This is common. These deep-closing horses are at the mercy of the race shape, and more often get a minor placing than a win. But we think the projected pace of this race very much favors her, and she's a juicy 8-1 on the morning line. We will bet her to win, and cheer for very fast early fractions.
Indiana Grand Race 2
$30 W on 5-Miss Artie
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Race 6 (4:35 p.m.) is a good betting race, a Maiden Special for Indiana-bred females 3 and older at a mile on the dirt. We like a bomb here, 5-Royal Cheyanne. This race is filled with horses who look like they can win, and most of them are conditioned by trainers with very low winning percentages. Someone will have to win this, and so we're going to take a shot on Royal Cheyanne, who makes her second career start after being outrun badly in a sprint at Indiana Grand two weeks ago. We will say a novena that going from a sprint to a route wakes her up, and trainer Ron Brown does have a good 15% strike rate with horses making this switch. At 30-1, this is a stab, but we think it's one with a big upside. We will bet her to win.
Indiana Grand Race 6
$25 W on 5-Royal Cheyanne
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For a nightcap, we'll go to Race 7 (5:03 p.m.), an allowance/optional claimer at a mile on dirt. It's for horses 3 and up, and nine will go to post. We like 2-Bubba's Dixie. This late-running five-year-old son of Fusaichi Pegasus was last seen at Oaklawn Park, where he was a hot commodity at the claiming box, having been claimed three times in two months. He's in good form, has good speed figures, and should be rolling late. We will bet him to win at 9-2.
Indiana Grand Race 7
$20 W on 2-Bubba's Dixie
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.