Thoroughbreds Monday - McMudder picks a couple each from Parx Racing and Delaware Park
Mick is very glad he gave lots of props to King for a Day in this space Sunday. He is sorry he did not pick him in the Pegasus. Sometimes being a successful bettor is about embracing the obvious and sometimes it’s about bucking common sense and going with your gut. Usually, it’s about the first. So, trying to tame the human tendency to follow the “gut” is one of the top priorities for any punter. Sometimes the obvious play is obvious for all the right reasons. If so, then embrace or skip the race (an option available in gambling that is seldom available in “real” life) and move on to the next opportunity. Handicapping is all about information asymmetry. Can you find out something that others don’t see? For example, in retrospect, did Maximum Security run Sunday because the connections were concerned that he was not progressing as they had hoped, and they needed to judge him under race conditions? Certainly, a more logical conclusion than before the race.
Weather: Clear and mostly sunny with the possibility of strong storms later in the day. Sound familiar.
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Parx Race 3 (1:49 p.m. ET)
2-Laura’s Jett is obvious here, right? She has the highest last out speed figure, ran well in that debut, gets a top rider to stay on board, and faces lesser in this PA-restricted race. Lots of positives. So where else to look? 4-Secretive Revenge gets Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle for the first time after an OK debut. He wins at 75% for this barn. Look for 6-Kate’s Bull’s Bay and 7-Diva Drama to complete the exotics. Diva Drama really needs this class relief but her form cycle is not promising. She makes Mick’s hall of fame for horses being run over their heads for way too long.
Parx Race 3
$10 W/P/S 2-Laura’s Jett
$2 Exacta box 2,4
$1 Trifecta 2,4/2,4/6,7
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Parx Race 7 (3:37 p.m.)
1-Two Item Maker shows what thoroughbred ownership is all about. Owner Charles Fipke won a little race at Churchill on Saturday, namely the Stephen Foster (G2). Now it’s Monday and he has one in the seventh at Parx. This one drew off from a maiden race to win last out. The other three logical players, 4-Neom, 5-Swap Meet, and 6-Trailblazer, all have one thing in common and it’s not a good thing. Their last out races were a step backwards. So who had an excuse? Neom has none. Swap Meet gets a class break and that may help but Trailblazer gets a new surface having run her first 3 races on the turf. Trailblazer is ¾ to In Lingerie, a G1 winner on the dirt, so she needs to run like big sis.
Parx Race 7
$10 W/P/S 1-Two Item Maker
$2 Exacta box 1,6
$1 Trifecta box 1,5,6
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Delaware Race 2 (1:45 p.m.)
1-Arrivederci brings a 3 race win streak here as well as 4 out of 5 since arriving in the barn of Hugh McMahon. With that said, conditioner McMahon may have gotten all he can out of this gelding and this race is tougher than the first level allowance he won last out. The brief break indicates that some work has been done to get this one perfect for this spot, especially since he was scratched 9 days ago at Penn. 6-Monkey’s Medal didn’t take to the turf last out but won this race 2 back. He fits on a repeat of that effort. 7-Ox Bro was claimed out of the same race that the 6 won last out and arrives in the barn of Delaware Park specialist Andy Simoff. Trevor McCarthy in the saddle is a positive.
Delaware Race 2
$10 W/P/S 1-Arrivederci
$2 Exacta box 1,6
$1 Trifecta box 1,6,7
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Delaware Race 7 (4:15 p.m.)
2-Flowers for Lisa returns to the races following an extended break for a barn that wins at 29% with these kinds. In addition, he is shipping in from Monmouth so he has been targeted at this spot for his return. Jockey Jose Ferrer comes into town to ride after running second in each of his Delaware mounts so far this meet. 5-Twocubanbrothersu just keeps on rolling. The 9 year old won last time for the 25th time in a career spanning 7 years. He fits here and pilot Raul Mena got great punch from him in the stretch last time. 3-Belfour and 4-Honor the Fleet need to find their previous form to be competitive here but come from quality barns and may need a race to get back to said form.
Delaware Race 7
$10 W/P/S 5-Twocubanbrothersu
$2 Exacta box 2,5
$1 Trifecta [2/5]-[2/5]-[3/4]
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MICK’S QUICKIES
Delaware Race 3 (2:15 p.m.): 6-Had the Notion arrives here for first time trainer Darci Rice. Google her and find a jockey from 20 years ago. Where did she go for 2 decades? Inquiring minds want to know. But the filly is bred to win early and gets Jeremy Rose in the saddle. She could be a 100% career trainer by this time Tuesday. It would be all down hill from there . . .
Parx Race 5 (2:43 p.m.): 6-Sparty moves up off a good race, 38% with second starters in barn.