Thoroughbreds Friday - McMudder on Maximum Security, Pegasus Stakes, Travers Stakes, Haskell Stakes, Belmont Park, Monmouth, Laurel
Soft reentry races. That’s what Maximum Security is getting on Sunday at Monmouth in the Pegasus Stakes. Is that a good thing? Absolutely, if he performs up to his abilities and blows away the field. He will go off at 1-5 or lower so the punters have little to gain from his run but connections get an afternoon workout and stand to pocket $90K. That assumes everything goes well. Seldom in horse racing does everything go well. These connections learned that lesson in the Kentucky Derby. And that is why top horses, especially those with value in the breeding shed going forward, tend to only show up when they need the race to create value. Unfortunately for Maximum Security’s connections, he needs to start creating value for his next career. Yes, his Florida Derby win gives him a G1 victory and the Kentucky Derby will keep him on people’s radar once his running career is over but he is the son of a young sire that did not run beyond 2 years old. So Sunday marks a restart for this guy that should take him to both the Haskell and the Travers before a trip to the Breeder’s Cup. Win those and the Kentucky Derby set back becomes a footnote rather than a headline.
Weather: Clear and mostly sunny with a significant wind. The wind may be an issue since both Laurel and Belmont have very long lanes.
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Belmont Race 5 (3:40 p.m. ET)
7-Lucky E is the only runner in here with a prior race, a common situation in 2 year old maiden races. Unfortunately, his first effort was not much but he should move up off that effort. Otherwise, this appears to be a battle of barns with big success with firsters. 5-Three Technique, cost 6x his sire’s average yearling sales number, and comes in for a barn that wins with firsters and has dropped two bullets in the mornings. 2-Violator, for the always dangerous Steve Asmussen barn, looks well positioned to get a piece.
Belmont Race 5
$10 W/P/S 5-Three Technique
$2 Exacta box 2,5
$1 Trifecta box 2,5,7
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Belmont Race 7 (4:45 p.m.)
An angle that Mick struggles to find good numbers for is winners first off disasters. Gut says that trainer Linda Rice may be better at this angle than most others and 2-Dr Lloyd fits the profile. He was pulled up and vanned off in his last effort yet shows up here off a regular work tab and draws a jockey that wins at 37% on Ms. Rice’s horses. 6-Rally Cap is first off the claim after running a monster in the slop last time. Top claiming trainer should have this one ready. The other Linda Rice entrant, 3-Stink Man, won last out and deserves a piece of this one.
Belmont Race 7
$10 W/P/S 2-Dr Lloyd
$2 Exacta box 2,6
$1 Trifecta box 2,3,6
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Laurel Race 1 (1:10 p.m.)
Just like at Belmont, Laurel has trainers that excel with 2 year olds. And three of them have runners here but one of those stands out. 6-Shippy, ships in from Penn National for trainer Tim Kreiser, a 38% trainer with firsters. The works have been excellent and his top man Edwin Gonzalez makes the drive to Maryland for the day. 8-Lady Magnolia arrives for trainer Phil Schoenthal who continues to show 2 year olds to the winner’s circle. The works are solid and bug Victor Rosales is doing well for this barn. 7-Courtesy Shuttle has improved race over race and Jerry Robb wins with 2 year olds, often because he has so many of them. 5-Evan’s Chile was close first out and the same team arrives in this, much tougher, spot.
Laurel Race 1
$10 W/P/S 6-Shippy
$2 Exacta box 6,8
$1 Trifecta box 6,7,8
$0.10 Superfecta Box 5,6,7,8
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Monmouth Race 5 (3:00 p.m.)
3-Rove makes the drive up the road from Parx to get on the turf. Top trainer at Parx that knows how to ship and win. 5-Baby Isabella gets back on the turf for her first race of 2019 for 38% at Monmouth trainer Kelly Breen. This one may need a race but no one else looks better. 2-Publicist gets back on turf. Not sure that is the right move but connections seem to think it is.
Monmouth Race 5
$10 W/P/S 5-Baby Isabella
$2 Exacta box 3,5
$1 Trifecta box 2,3,5
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MICK’S QUICKIES:
Belmont Race 6 (4:12 p.m.): 9-The Last Zip gets everything but a good post. Should be good enough to overcome.
Laurel Race 3 (2:11 p.m.): Trainer Mike Trombetta wins at 31% with starters new to his barn. This one got time to grow up after the transfer from Todd Pletcher. And 6-Bossy Bride has a great name, too.
Monmouth Race 6 (3:29 p.m.): A different angle here. 6-The Great Samurai to place. Why? Connections do second place well and the irregular run schedule gives pause. Hope for a bomb on top and collect the place money with this one.