Thoroughbreds Friday: McMudder races at Belmont and Pimlico -- of course the track may be wet

Class. Today it’s not about class of horses but rather about the class of connections. Mick would like to point out how differently Gary West has approached the disqualification of Maximum Security from how Jason Servis has approached it. Of course the owner has more to lose (over a million in this case) than the trainer but the entire tenor of comments from the two men since the race has been so different. Everyone can see that Mr. West thinks he was done a disservice by the stewards but he needs to move on as his trainer has done. There are more races to be run, more purses to be won, and more horses to be bred, bought and sold. But mostly, Mr West should be happy that no horses or riders were harmed by his horse’s (and jockey’s) egregious error. A multi-horse pile up in the Derby could be the death knell for an industry teetering on the edge of federal government intervention. So, Mr West, how would your large investment in the thoroughbred industry look if your horse had taken out half the field and the government decided that horse racing was too dangerous and had to be stopped?

Picks for May 10, 2019:

Maybe some rain to completely change the racing surface? Can the wet spring stop already? It didn’t last year as tracks suffered from one of the wettest years ever.

Belmont Race 3
Droppers or progressives? Who takes the day. This race has both and Mick sees reasons for liking both sides of the argument. 1-Candy Promises is the dropper in the equation. He ran well at higher levels recently but was outclassed finding his way back to a level that has seen him successful in the past. 5-Javelin is the progressive. He is coming off back to back wins at lower levels but takes the next logical step here. Either can win but the progressive gets Mick’s nod here. 2-Indian Guide is close to the first two and should show up in the exotics.
$10 W/P/S 5-Javelin
$2 Exacta Box 1,2,5
$1 Trifecta Box 1,2,5

Belmont Race 5
Two year old maiden races are always fun since using past performances this early in the year doesn’t do much for you. This is a pedigree and connections challenge with a little morning works analysis thrown in. And this field is full of very well intentioned first time starters, including several out of mares whose 2 year olds just win. The issue arises as to whether those family connections won in May or December since the progression of horses as 2 year olds can be vastly different. 7-Mo Ready has all the right things going for him. Beautifully bred. Progressive works. Excellent connections. Home bred. Check on them all. He even draws outside so he shouldn’t get caught in traffic problems, a common issue in juvenile races. 4-Blues City is the one horse in this race bred to sprint and he comes from connections that do well early. Lastly, Rudy Rodriguez cut his teeth with claiming horses but has shown the same productivity with young horses in recent years. His entry (1/1A) may not be good enough to win but should not be ignored underneath.
$10 W/P/S 7-Mo Ready
$2 Exacta box 1,4,7
$1 Trifecta box 1,4,7

Pimlico Race 1
More two year olds but half this field has already debuted. The stand out here, especially if the track is wet, is 2-Always Talking. She has a race under her belt and is bred for the off going. Trainer Jerry Robb wins with youngsters and he keeps Charles Town regular Wesley Ho on board to get this one out and going early. 4-Naughty Thoughts should benefit from his first start and should improve here. Of the firsters, 6-Hello Beautiful is bred to be running late and this husband and wife jockey/trainer combo is in the money at a 75% clip.
$10 W/P/S 2-Always Talking
$2 Exacta box 2,4
$1 Trifecta box 2,4,6

Pimlico Race 2
3-Joopster takes a plunge here for connections that win at 37% with such moves. The breaks between races indicates that there are issues with this one but he is the best if he is all there. 7-Stomp Dance has knocked at this level previously but never gotten through. He won at this distance in the slop last year and trainer Kieron Magee has him on a solid form cycle. 5-Bust Another is another horse coming off the shelf that could move up with the class drop. His comeback works are solid and he gets Trevor McCarthy in the saddle, a rider who wins at 36% for trainer Jamie Ness.
$10 W/P/S 3-Joopster
$2 Exacta box 3,5,7
$1 Trifecta box 3,5,7

Mick’s Quick Picks

Belmont Race 7
2-Identity Politics should be favorite at post time but don’t overlook 4-Achilles Warrior who seems to have grown up over the Winter.

Pimlico Race 9
3-Nico Bree N Teej gets a saltier field and extra distance but his early speed and the weight reduction with the bug boy should be enough if the track is sealed.