Thoroughbreds: RT handicaps the Thursday evening card at Penn National

April 18, 2019

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Musings:

Jeopardy James Is Unstoppable!
On Wednesday, he set another 1 day record. The man is incredible.
$131,127 for the day, usurping the 1 day record, ahem, his, of 110,914
10 Days - $697,787

A little bummed today. Yesterday, I dug up my passport and after finding it, my trip to Longchamps went down the WC. Almond Eye is passing on The Arc.

Yesterday, I picked Roman Creed at IND4. He was making this sweet move at the middle of the turn and it appeared that he clipped heels with the horse in front. He threw his jockey and frankly, I couldn’t look after that. It is too harrowing for me to watch. I did find out all is well with the jockey and the horse. Whew.

Taking a flyer on KC +190 vs the Yanks. NY coming off two emotional wins and have tough injuries.

Doing the same as yesterday…maybe we’ll hit the Pick 6 (got 5/6 last Pm here and 5/6 at CT, too) ☹

Penn National Rain and 64̊

Race 2
$28K Allowance Non-Winners Other Than Maiden, Claiming or PA Bred 3yo+ 6f

The Skinny:
5 – Ministersdontplay (10/1) in my Catholic spirit of Holy Thursday, have to side with this gelding. Jockey Tyler Connor (23%Last 10 days) pressed the pace from the 3 path last out, moved into contention on the turn, prompted him, and hand rode him to the win while going away last out. 4yo bay gelding is in great condition and sloppy track will play into his style. Father Bauer, if you’re reading this, I’m putting 20 bucks on the nose for the Basilica!

1 – Chill Factor (4/1) rain/slop makes Penn play to closers and with the speed coming from 3-For The Moment (9/2), 4-Cardcounter (9/2), 5-Ministersdontplay (10/1), 6-El Potro (12/1), and the prohibitive favorite 9-Smart Royal T (5/2), sets this race up nicely for Chill Factor to get a piece. Parx shipper will find Penn an easier go, had a solid work since last and will get a ground saving trip along the rail.

False Fave: 9 – Smart Royal T (5/2) yes, his last race numbers are greater than the rest and he will be bet down. Then again, this Smarty Jones gelding has followed a bounce pattern its past three races going from 92-89-100 or down, up and this fits a down bounce. Also, he ships from Laurel where he was beaten in the stretch the last two and Laurel, of late is a heavily speed bias strip on sprints.

Penn National Race 2 Bets
5 - $20/w $40/p
$2 Exacta Box 5-1-9
Trifecta 1-9/1-9-3/5, 1-9/5/1-9-3, 5/1-9/1-9-3

Race 4
$12.5K Claimers 3yo+ going 1 & 1/16th

9 – Stadium (2/1) have to go with the fave here after last out and how this Theatrical runner has responded to new trainer Brandon Kulp (32%). Bullet work after last race is a tell that Stadium is liking his new jockey, Dana Whitney.

2 – Baron Barracuda (3/1) previous trainer got the sack in favor of Les Stickler who has a 25% win rate for the meet and 34%w with jockey Beato. Has scored $107K in earnings at Penn and gets class relief dropping for a tag.

1 – Distinctive Ride (9/2) Parx shipper and second off a layoff, Distinctive has been claimed five times this year, including one reclaim, which is akin to being passed around nearly as much as Madonna. Inside post will bode well in this route, allowing Bowman to make a strong move along the rail down the stretch

Penn National Race 4 Bets
9 - $20w $40/p
$2 Exacta Box 9-2-1

Race 6
$15K Claimers F&M 3yo+ going 5.5f

1 – Mayday Magic (9/2) fan of a horse winning last out and moving up in class, leading rider Edwin Gonzalez (36% last 30 and predicting a huge night for him), retains this mount.

2-Dirty Girl (2-1) keeping in the spirit of Distinctive Ride in the 4th, Dirty Girl takes a major class drop from allowance company to this level which is not the best sign, yet could be trainer/owner combo moving to a spot to generate cash flow. Hey, these animals aren’t of the cheaper-to-keep-her genre.

7 – Swedenborg (6-1) another winning entry moving up in class, this Catalano (21%) trainee has found a new gear since Katie Davis jumped in the irons. She gets this filly again tonight and will be there. Penn results 5:2-1-0

Penn National Race 6 Bets
1 - $10/w $20/p
$2 Exacta Box 1-2-7
Trifecta 2-7/2-7-5/1, 2-7/1/2-7-5, 1/2-7/2-7-5

Race 1) 5 - Equus Novus – going to be short priced and will not get caught. Laurel leading rider Trevor McCarthy in the irons…just for this race/horse.

Race 3) 3 - Howdy Boy (6/1) comes out of positive key race, switch of trainers and having terrific jockey Katie Davis will be what this guy needed.

Race 5) 3 – Riva Belle (9/5) Kreier/Gonzalez - Like M.C. Hammer, can’t touch this…

Race 7) 4 – Guthries Collar (6/5) chalk chalk chalk…Kreiser/Gonzalez again

Race 8) 4 – Gotta Go Go (5/2) back again with Gonzalez to finish out the last three of the night. Kathleen DeMasi (35% last 30 days) trains.