Thoroughbreds: Garrity likes Saffira at Tampa Bay Downs plus races at Will Rogers and Turf Paradise

There's another light day of racing action around the country. The big boys, Florida, Southern California, Kentucky, and New York, are all dark, and it's on days like these that the secondary tracks try to put on good cards: they don't necessarily run stakes races, but the thinking is that they can catch the attention of simulcast players when the major tracks are dark. But to do so, they will need races with deep, competitive fields. That's what bettors want, and that's what we want. And we've locked in on a few races today from around the country. So let's go.

We'll start with a stop at Tampa Bay Downs. The weather will be good there, and we're expecting fast dirt and firm turf. We're going to take a crack at one race there, and it's the 8th, which is a Maiden Special for fillies and mares 3 and up at mile on the turf. There are 10 entrants, and the scheduled post time is 4:00 pm Eastern.

There's one horse here who seems to outclass the others: in a field of modestly-bred horses, 5-Saffira stands out: she's by the famed (and deceased) Irish stallion Street Cry, and her dam is out of Montjeu, another prominent (and also deceased) Irish sire. These are absolutely top-shelf stallions, Street Cry produced both Zenyatta and Winx -- and seeing a filly of this quality in with a typical group of midweek Tampa Bay Downs maidens makes one want to remove the rubber band from one's bankroll. This is her first North American start, but her European form -- she ran a good second in a maiden race at Brighton in September -- only supports this.

But there's a catch: she's trained by Bill Mott. And as good as Mott is -- which is plenty good -- his first time North American starters usually need a race: he's 0-for-6 this year with horses making their U.S. debut. Moreover, Saffira probably wants longer: her pedigree says long on the turf, and at a mile, this race is probably shorter than her optimum distance. And her recent workouts do not suggest a horse who is about to deliver an optimum performance. These are all negatives.

We break this down this way because this is a very typical kind of conundrum a handicapper must face: There are positive factors, some of them strong; and there are negatives, some of them strong, too. Which way does one go? Will Saffira dominate this field? Or is she an underlay, and the smart play is to bet against her? Which way should we go?

Well, we're all in on Saffira: We've gone through the rest of the field more than once, and we just cannot find another horse we can pick. She may not be cranked up, this may be shorter than what she wants, but we see a potential stakes horse here, running against a mediocre field, and we have to pick the best horse. We'll take her 7/2 morning line price, and if she wins, she will probably not be that price again for a long time. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, $30 to win on 5-Saffira.

And as an aside: this is one of the very best parts of this game. In other areas of life, there is equivocacy; One can argue that Hemingway is better than Faulker, or the other way around; and there is nothing to settle that debate. But in racing, there is a clear-cut and definitive answer: After about a minute and a half, just past 4 pm this afternoon, we will find out whether Saffira was the right pick. This clarity, in today's foggy world, is marvelous. We'll savor that as Saffira swoops past the field and wins today's 8th at Tampa by daylight.

Over at Will Rogers Downs, there's a good and varied card today. We've doped out Race 7, which is a handicap at 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track for fillies and mares 3 and up. Post time is 5:15 pm Eastern. We like the inside horse, 1-Cat's Eternalflame. This speedy 5-year-old mare breaks from the rail, and because of that, will probably have to go right for the lead. Fortunately, we think that is her best running style, and we think that the likely pace scenario of the race sets up for a horse to steal it on the front end. This looks like a case where a disadvantageous post may be a hidden advantage: it will force Cat's Eternalflame's jockey to use tactics that create the best opportunity to win. We'll bet her to win, and we will key her on top of the other two top contenders, 2-Fiddlers Tsunami and 3-Ship Shape Miss, in the trifecta. The bets: Will Rogers Downs, Race 7, $20 to win on 1-Cat's Eternalflame; $5 trifecta, 1 (Cat's Eternal Flame) with 2,3 (Fiddlers Tsunami/Ship Shape Miss) with 2,3. The way to call out this last bet, if you're using a human teller, is as follows: $5 trifecta part wheel, 1 with 2.3 with 2,3.

Race 8 at Will Rogers is a $10,000 claimer for horses 3 and up at 6 furlongs on the dirt. Post time is 5:45 pm Eastern. There's a strong play in here, and it's 7-Inspire Courage. Any of this 7-year-old gelding's last three races would be good enough to win here, and he gets the coveted outside post, which will suit his running style: he can set the pace, but he can also stalk it, and from the outside, he can let the race develop and do either. We will bet him to win at 9/5. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 8, $25 to win on 7-Inspire Courage.

For a nightcap, for a mint on one's parimutuel pillow, as it were, we'll play the last race at Turf Paradise in Phoenix. Post time is at 7:51 pm. This is an allowance/optional claimer for older horses at a mile on the grass. There's a lot of speed in here, and while speed horses win on the Turf Paradise sod more than at other tracks, we think the prevalence of front-running types in here sets the race up for a closer. We like 4-Bobby Baby. This 4-year-old gelding was claimed last out, and is running for trainer Shawn Davis for the first time. Davis wins at a very respectable clip -- 21% on the year, and 29% at the current Turf Paradise meeting -- and that, coupled with his running style, makes him our pick. At 6-1, we will bet him to win. The bet: Turf Paradise, Race 8, $15 to win on 4-Bobby Baby.

That's all for today. We'll be back tomorrow with a special event for a Thursday: it's opening day at Keeneland. Until then, good luck at the windows.