Florida Derby Day: Garrity handicaps four stakes races at Gulfstream, four more at reopened Santa Anita
Do you remember those drab winter mornings, when the sun seemed invisible, the sky was the color of dirty dishwater, there seemed to be about three hours between sunrise and sunset, and the thing a handicapper noticed most was the absence of really good races? Do you remember when the highlight of the day was pounding a 7/5 favorite in a $3,500 claimer at Palookaville Downs?
Well, those days are over, and today is the reward for having persevered through the dark winter days: Spring has sprung, comrades, and it is bursting out from coast to coast, and the Daily Racing Form has gone from being as thin as a small-town phone book to being as fat as a deadbeat's stack of unpaid bills. There's incredibly good racing all over the place, rich races and big fields and sunshine and the smell of freshly cut grass. It's spring, baby, and winter is over.
Today is just a great day of racing: Santa Anita is back, it's Florida Derby day at Gulfstream Park, and there are more stakes races than a degenerate can shake a rolled-up Form at. There's a lot to cover here, so we're going to get right down to the action.
There are by our count 27 -- yes, 27 -- stakes races across the country today. This is far more than we can break down here. But throwing out the non-graded races, like the 10 at Aqueduct, where it's New York Claiming Championship day, leaves us with a much more manageable eight graded stakes races, four each at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. They are as follows:
Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park Mile, Grade 2
Gulfstream Park Oaks, Grade 2
Pan American Stakes, Grade 2
Florida Derby, Grade 1
Santa Anita Park
Frank E. Kilroe Mile, Grade 1
San Carlos Stakes, Grade 2
Santa Ana Stakes, Grade 3
Beholder Mile, Grade 1
This is still a lot to cover, but we'll do it: We'll start with an in-depth look at the Florida Derby, and then we'll take a shorter look at the rest of the stakes action. We'll note that the weather forecast in California is perfect, and while the weather in Hallandale Beach is somewhat iffy, we're going to handicap for fast and firm at Santa Anita, and a fast main track at Gulfstream (we discuss the condition of the turf course at Gulfstream below). Let's go.
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, 3-Year-Olds
The Florida Derby's importance as a prep for the Kentucky Derby has increased in recent years, especially since the race was moved in 2005 from earlier in March to five weeks before the Derby. It used to be a prep before a prep; horses would run in the Florida Derby in the second week of March, then run in a final derby prep elsewhere, usually the Blue Grass at Keeneland or the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. But those days are long gone; horses don't run as much these days, and it's pointless and a waste of time to complain about it. We'll note only that this is the way that it is, and that while a five-week break used to be considered far too long a layoff to be ready for a race as taxing as the Kentucky Derby, that's the way it is today, and that's the reality we will deal with.
11 horses are entered for the Florida Derby, and before we look at each of them, we want to note a statistic that is important: As of March 28, in races a mile or longer on Gulfstream Park's main track, horses breaking from post positions 9 through 14 have a total of 7 wins from 128 starts: this is a 5.4% strike rate. Post position 8 is not much better: horses there were 6 for 85, a 7% win rate. This is a dramatic difference between the inside post positions, where posts 1 through 4 have win rates over 14%.
Moreover, these are the stats for all races a mile or longer, and of all the configurations of dirt routes at Gulfstream, a mile and an eighth, the distance of the Florida Derby, may be the most difficult for horses stuck outside. Because of the layout of the dirt oval at Gulfstream, these 9 furlong races have a very short run to the first turn, and this puts the poor animals marooned in the outer posts at a very distinct disadvantage; a wide trip is almost guaranteed. Put bluntly: horses in posts 8 through 11 in the Florida Derby today are up against it. This does not mean they cannot win -- Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 13 -- but it does mean they will have to overcome a hurdle the inside horses will not face.
We go through all this because we are going to look first at the horses in posts 8 through 11. When looking for the horse think we is going to win, we think we throw them all out. 8-Bode Express is a maiden, and while the Beyer Speed Figure he earned in his last race, a 91, was good, if he couldn't beat six other runners in a 7-furlong maiden race, it's hard for us to imagine that he's going to beat 12 other runners from a bad post. He's a toss.
10-Union's Destiny and 11-Garter and Tie are also automatic throwouts. They would probably be throwouts from an inside post as well; both look far too slow to have any chance at winning this race. The outside posts just seal the deal; we are drawing a line through both. In fact, if one could bet an exacta on the last two finishers, we would box the 10 and the 11, and we would bet them hard.
9-Code of Honor is the second choice in the race, at 3-1. This runner has been highly touted since last year, when he finished a good second in the Champagne at Belmont. After a disastrous 2019 debut at Gulfstream Park on January 5, when he finished 4th at 4/5 in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, he rebounded strongly next out, winning the Fountain of Youth on March 2 with a powerful late move, earning a good 95 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. The rumor after this race was that trainer Shug McGaughey, who's a Hall of Famer for a reason, trained him hard after the Mucho Macho Man debacle, and that Code of Honor responded to the more aggressive treatment very well.
There has also been talk floating this week, racetrack scuttlebutt, that McGaughey is very confident in his horse in this spot, and anything Shug says should be taken seriously, as he is not normally one to talk up his horses. But with all due respect to Shug, we hate Code of Honor here: We think his win in the Fountain of Youth was aided by a track bias favoring his closing running style; and we also think that his outside post and lack of early speed virtually guarantees him a bad trip. Add them both up, and he's a toss. We think he will finish off the board.
We think 2-Current, 3-Harvey Wallbanger, 5-Everfast, and 6-Hard Belle are also throwouts. Current could end up being a good horse, but he's run five of his six races on turf, and none of his races on any surface suggest that he is anywhere near fast enough to win here. We will pass.
Harvey Wallbanger did win the Holy Bull last out, but that was another bias-aided race: he came from dead last on a track that favored closers. And even with the aid of the bias, he still only earned a pedestrian Beyer Speed Figure of 85. He's not fast enough; toss him.
Everfast is ever slow. Hard Belle may be a pace factor, but she has about as much chance of winning this as we have of busting Phil Ivey with jack high. Both have no chance; toss them both.
Eliminating the non-contenders leaves us with 1-Hidden Scroll, 4-Bourbon War, and 7-Maximum Security. These are the win contenders in the race. Let's look at each of them.
Bourbon War shows the kind of steady progression that we like to see in a horse shooting for the Kentucky Derby: Each of his races is a bit better than the last, and his last race, a game second in the Fountain of Youth, was his best yet. He earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure, which makes him competitive here.
But as we noted earlier, the Fountain of Youth fell apart: the early pacesetters all quit running at the top of the lane, and closers dominated from there. We think the shape of the race makes Bourbon War's effort look better than it really was. Moreover, we don't think he's likely to get this kind of trip again. He's a contender, but we do not like him to win. A minor placing would seem to be his limit.
Maximum Security is a horse with seemingly limitless potential. He's run three times, and he's won all three by daylight, including his last race, a 7-furlong allowance that he won by a mere 18 1/2 lengths, earning a lofty 102 Beyer Speed Figure. And this horse is as visually impressive as he is in paper: In his last race, he looked incredible, running very, very fast with almost ridiculous ease. This is a serious racehorse.
But there are several things about him that give a handicapper pause. This is his first route race, this is his first stakes race, and he's never really had to rate before: he's dominated his races from start to finish. He's also breaking from post 7 here, which is not as bad as the far outside, but the combination of the post and his high early speed makes us think that he's going to go for the front out of the gate, and chase a pace that is too fast for him to last 9 furlongs. He may win, and if he does, he could very well be the Kentucky Derby favorite, but we think it more likely that he tires in the stretch. With him too, we think that a minor placing is his ceiling.
We've saved Hidden Scroll for last, and we've done so for reason: we think he's the winner here. He has the least experience in this group, with only two career starts, but he has been impressive in both. In particular, his 4th place finish in the Fountain of Youth was eye-popping: he was the only horse near the early pace who didn't quit. When a horse has the shape of the race go against him like this, but fights it, when a horse swims against the tide, as it were, it is usually an indication that the horse is very, very good. We think this is the case with Hidden Scroll.
We think that his Fountain of Youth effort shows that Hidden Scroll is a superior animal. He gets the 1 post, which is ideal. We think that he will get a perfect stalking trip, skimming the rail the whole way around the track, and then will move to the front at the top of the stretch, and win powerfully. He may even stamp himself as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. We will bet him to win, and we will key him in the trifecta, with Maxmium Security and Bourbon War. We'll also box the three of them in the tri, just in case they run 1-2-3, but in the wrong order.
The bets: Gulfstream Park, Race 14, $35 to win on 1-Hidden Scroll. $5 Trifecta, 1 (Hidden Scroll) with 4 (Bourbon War) and 7 (Maximum Security) in 2nd and 3rd. This is a 1-4,7-4,7 ticket, and will cost $2 for every $1 betting unit. We'll play it for $10, for a total investment of $20.
Turning to the races on the undercard at Gulfstream,
Gulfstream Park Mile. One mile, dirt, horses 4 and up
This race came up with a short field of six, and the race has an overwhelming favorite, 4-Prince Lucky, who is 2/5 on the morning line. The race is being run early, as Race 4, presumably to get it out of the late Pick 4 and Pick 6. We'd like to say that we've found a way to pick against the chalk, but we can't: Prince Lucky seems to have the field outclassed, and we think he wins easily. We can't make a bet on a horse whose odds are this short, so we'll pass.
Gulfstream Park Oaks, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies
The filly counterpart to the Florida Derby drew seven entrants. The favorites here are 6-Dunbar Road, at 8/5, and 3-Point of Honor, at 9/5. The speedy 7-Cookie Dough is next at 7/2. We think the race comes down to these three, as the other four runners appear too slow to have a shot at winning.
Of the three, we like Point of Honor. She has come from midpack in both of her wins, and we think that style is a fit here, as Cookie Dough only really knows one way, which is going right to the front, and Dunbar Road also was near the front in her lone start, which she won by 8 3/4 lengths. We think that Cookie Dough sets the pace, with Dunbar Road right on her flank, and that the two of them battle up front for the first six furlongs. We expect Point of Honor to pass the tiring pacesetters at the top of the stretch, to take the lead, and then to hold off the late runners. We will bet Point of Honor to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $20 to win on 3-Point of Honor.
Pan American Stakes, 1 1/2 miles, turf, horses 4 and up
There are nine horses going in the Pan Am. The turf course at Gulfstream Park on Friday was good, and though there's a chance of showers in South Florida on Saturday afternoon, we do not expect the turf course to be significantly softer. But neither do we think it will be truly firm: even if they upgrade the turf course's rating to firm, we think there will still be some give to it, and this is important, as two of the top contenders, 1-Focus Group (4-1) and 4-Canessar (7/2) would seem to prefer firm going. We think that the condition of the turf course will not to be the liking of either of these, so we are going to look elsewhere for a winner.
We like 3-Soglio, at 3-1. This 5-year-old son of Scat Daddy has handled the distance in the past; he's hit the board in 4 of 5 tries at 12 furlongs on grass. He's also run well on good and even yielding turf. We will bet him to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 13, $15 to win on 8-Soglio.
Now we turn to Santa Anita, which returned to racing Friday, and runs a quartet of graded stakes today.
Frank E. Kilroe Mile, Grade 1, one mile, turf, horses 4 and up
This race drew six runners. The 8/5 favorite, 4-Catapult, is a strong play here. Getting back to the firm turf he seems to prefer will, we think, put him into the winner's circle. He has an extraordinarily powerful late kick, and he has tactical speed, which will suit him well, as this race came up with a noticeable lack of runners with early speed. We think that the field will run around the track in a fairly tightly bunched group, and the winner will be the horse with the best finishing kick. We are confident that will be Catapult, and we'll bet him to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 5, $25 to win on 4-Catapult.
San Carlos Stakes, Grade 2, 7 furlongs, dirt, horses 3 and up
Seven horses go here. The dirt at Santa Anita yesterday was a normal Santa Anita track, with speed favored, but not a outright speed bias. In light of this, we like 2-Ax Man: this 4-year-old has plenty of early zip, and as he's trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, he will be asked to use it. We think he goes right to the front and wires the field. We'll bet him at 5/2. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 6, $20 to win on 2-Ax Man.
Santa Ana Stakes, Grade 3, 1 1/4 miles, turf, fillies and mares 4 and up
The first pass through the past performances of the eight runners here suggests that few of them want to go this far. Most seem to want nothing longer than a mile, and several of them are coming out of sprints. But one of them will win, and we think it's going to be 6-Elysea's World. This Irish-bred 6-year-old mare has been running in shorter races, but her pedigree suggests she will relish the extra distance. Her 5/2 morning line price is no bargain, especially in a race that could well turn out to be chaotic, but we'll take her anyway. We will bet her to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 7, $15 to win on 6-Elysea's World.
Beholder Mile, Grade 1, one mile, dirt, fillies and mares 3 and up
Seven runners were entered here. The big favorite is 5-Marley's Freedom, who's 4/5 for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. We think she's too good, and is winner. But we will not make her a play, as her odds figure to be too short to make a win bet a worthwhile endeavor. We will pass.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.