Thoroughbreds: Garrity heads to NoLa for Louisiana Derby Day
There is incredibly rich, diverse, and bettable racing today, all over the country. There are deep, interesting cards at all the major tracks, and there's even good racing at a few places off the beaten path, like Sam Houston, which runs a very attractive 8-race card tonight that features five minor stakes races. It's really an embarrassment of riches.
But the headliner of all of them is the Fair Grounds in New Orleans: it's Louisiana Derby day. And they are marking the biggest day of the meeting by putting on a mammoth, 13-race slate, which contains eight stakes races, four of them graded. We will focus most of our attention today on the racing on the bayou, but we will also, because we can't help it, throw in a quick look at a couple of stakes races at Oaklawn Park.The weather in NoLa today is supposed to be just about ideal: mid-70s and mostly sunny. We are expecting the racing surfaces everywhere today to be fair. There's a lot to cover, so let's get right to it.
The Louisiana Derby has always been an important Kentucky Derby prep race, but its prominence has waxed in recent years, due primarily to the fact that horses run so many fewer races than they used to. It used to be common for horses to make three or even four starts between mid-March and the first Saturday in May, but now most horses don't run in a total of four races in the leadup to the Derby. And a generation ago it would have been unthinkable not to run a horse in the six weeks between today and the first Saturday in May, but that is what most of the horses running today will do. It may seem like it's too early to start handicapping the Kentucky Derby field, but it is not: some of the horses running in New Orleans today will be in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 4, and today will be our last chance to see them race. So we'll need to pay attention.
The Louisiana Derby goes off as Race 13 on the Fair Grounds card today; post time is 6:13 Eastern. It's 1 1/8 miles on the main track. 11 horses were entered, as of our Saturday morning press time, there were no changes.
The handicapping of this race really comes down to one's opinion of the 6/5 favorite, War of Will. Since switching to dirt three races back, this horse has really turned into something else: He's won three straight, including two straight stakes races, the LeComte and the Risen Star, both at the Fair Grounds. A win today would stamp War of Will as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, and probably one of the top three or four betting choices in the race.
The Risen Star, which was run on February 16, is the key race in assessing the La. Derby, because it was won by the favorite in the race, but also because so much of today's field, 6 of the 11 starters, is coming out of it. It featured something that has become a recurring theme in this year's prep races: a total pace meltdown. The early pacesetters all finished far back (the leader after a half-mile, Gun It, finished 12th), and a quarter-mile into the race, the horses who ended up finishing 2-3-4 were 12th, 14th (last), and 13th, respectively.
The exception to this pattern, however, was War of Will. He was the only horse near the early pace who did not falter in the race's late stages. Instead, he drew off to win by just over two lengths, earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
This was a big effort, bigger, due to the pace scenario in the race, than the figure suggests. We think that War of Will is a very serious horse, and we will give him serious consideration in the Kentucky Derby. But we will be betting against him today.
When a young horse -- and these horses are indeed still young; 3-year-old Thoroughbreds this time of year are like 14-year-old boys -- runs an exceptionally strenuous race, it can sometimes affect him in his next start. This is the "bounce" theory, and while we generally dislike and discredit this theory -- we think the notion of horses bouncing is grossly overused -- we think it can happen when a horse runs an extraordinarily taxing race -- and we think War of Will's Risen Star was just that kind of race. We do not think that War of Will will embarrass himself today, but we just cannot take even money on a horse who is as likely to bounce as he is. We have to look elsewhere for the winner.
In assessing the other contenders, we can throw out 2-Lemniscate, 3-Limonite, 5-By My Standards, 7-Mr. Money, 9-Bankit ,and 11-Hog Creek Hustle. These horses all look too slow to win.
We like 8-Country House. This Bill Mott trainee ran a very good second in the Risen Star, and while he did benefit from the pace meltdown, he also was greener than an arugula salad down the lane; he swerved in deep stretch at least two times by our count, losing momentum each time. And he still ran a good second. Moreover, he looks like the kind of big, long-striding colt who will be better as the races get longer. Moreover, and this is probably more important, he looks like the kind of horse who is probably physically developing very rapidly right now, and that makes him very, very live. The fact that he is trained by Mott, who is as good as it gets in this game, is the cherry on top. Our pick to win the Louisiana Derby is Country House.
We think Country House will win, with some combination of 1-Rolland, 4-Sueno, and 6-War of Will completing the exacta, and probably the trifecta, too. But we are not going to overcomplicate this: when we like a horse going up against a horse who will be taking as much betting action as War of Will figures to get, the strategy is simple: bet to win. And we will. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 13, $40 to win on 8-Country House.
We'll turn now to the other stakes on the Fair Grounds card, and to keep this from turning into the sequel to Ulysses, we will try to keep our assessments of each brief.
The New Orleans Handicap is Race 10 at the Fair Grounds. It is a Grade 2 for older males at a mile and an eighth on the dirt, and goes to post at 4:34 pm Eastern. We like 6-Silver Dust at 7/2, and will make a small win play on him, but this race will be worth watching for a reason other than just the parimutuel: the 8 horse, Mr. Buff, has won four straight races at Aqueduct, two of them overnight stakes, in wire-to-wire fashion. He appears to be outclassed here, but how he does will be a very good, and very important, indication of how the dirt at the Fair Gorunds plays today: he will probably get the lead again today, and if he lasts, it will be a good indication that the racing surface is speed-favoring. We don't think that happens today, which is why we're picking Silver Dust. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 10, $10 to win on 6-Silver Dust. We will note that Silver Dust is also entered in the Muniz Memorial, the next after this one, but we expect him to scratch out of that spot to run here.
The 11th at Fair Grounds (post time: 5:10 pm Eastern) is the Muniz Memorial Handicap, a Grade 2 for older horses at 9 furlongs on the grass. We like 3-Synchrony, who's 3-1, and 7-Bricks and Mortar, who's 2-1. We can't figure out which one we like more, so we'll play them both in the exacta. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 11, $10 Exacta Box, 3-7. That will cost $20.
Race 12 in New Orleans, and the race before the Louisiana Derby, is the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. This is 3-year-old fillies going nine furlongs on the main track. Post time is 5:44 Eastern. A field of 8 is entered, and the favorite, 2-Serengeti Empress, appears to tower over the other runners. We would recommend a bet on her, but she will not be 6/5 -- we think 2/5 is more likely. We don't think we can beat her, so we will pass on the race.
Over at Oaklawn, there are a couple of overnight stakes races, the Nodouble Breeders, which is Race 7; and the Gazebo, which is Race 9. The Nodouble goes off at 5.09 pm Eastern; the Gazebo an hour later. Both are six-furlong dirt sprints, the Nodouble for older horses, the Gazebo for 3-year-olds.
The Nodobule is a pass.the favorite, 9- Hoonani Road, figures to dominate the race at a miserly price. The Gazebo, however, is a very bettable race: there are six fairly evenly matched entrants. But we like the favorite: 5-Gray Attempt. He ran dismally in the Risen Star -- he was one of the pacesetters who quit after six furlongs -- but he's back sprinting, where he probably belongs, and his prior one-turn races are superior to those of his rivals. We like him to win the race, and we like him a lot. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 9, $35 to win on 5-Gray Attempt.
That's all for today. Enjoy the racing. And good luck at the windows.