Thoroughbreds: If it’s Tuesday, Garrity must be in the southwest

With all due respect to December, we are entering a most wonderful time of the year -- for racing fans. Every day, the sunset is a little later; every day, one sees another sign of spring emerging; and every day, we get emerge just a little bit from racing's winter doldrums. Even better: each weekend there is terrific stakes racing; this coming Saturday, there's a mammoth card at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. We're not in full-blown spring yet, but we're getting closer.

But it's not spring quite yet: Today we are playing our winter Tuesday standbys, Sunland Park and Turf Paradise. It will not be long before we have more and varied midweek options, but for now we are thankful for the very playable cards in New Mexico and Arizona. The weather will be fine in both places, so we are handicapping for fast and firm. Let's go.

We'll start at Sunland, where Race 1 (Post time: 1:50 pm Eastern) is a 5 1/2 furlong dirt sprint for older horses. There is the usual mixed bag of hard-knocking veterans here, but there is one horse who stands out, and it is 2-Casablanca Hot. This 5-year-old gelding has been an amazingly consistent horse, running Beyer Speed Figures between 64 and 69 in 6 of 7 races. These were before his last two, when he stepped up in class and went speed-and-fade in two allowance races; we think that he is back at a level where he belongs, and we are expecting him to revert to form, and that is superior to the other runners here. Moreover, he has tactical speed in the rare Sunland sprint that lacks frontrunners, so he can either stalk or set the pace. He is by a hot trainer, Justin Evans, who is winning with 29% of his starters at the current Sunland meet. All signs say go for this guy, so we will play him on top at 3-1. We're also going to play him in the early double with another Justin Evans Runner in the 2nd race, 4-Conquest Flatterme (see below). The bets: Sunland Park, Race 1, $30 to win on 2-Casablanca Hot; $20 Double, #2 (Casablanca Hot) with #4, Conquest Flatterme.

The 2nd at Sunland (Post time: 2:16 pm Eastern) is a $7,500 claiming 5-furlong dirt sprint for older females. We like another Justin Evans trainee here, 4-Conquest Flatterme. This 7-year-old mare has been running fairly competitively in lower-level allowances and claiming races at Santa Anita Park, and now drops in for a $7,500 tag at Sunland. This is the equivalent of going from the New York Yankees to the Toledo Mud Hens; she seems to outclass the rest of this field by a significant margin. Moreover, Evans's stats with newcomers to his barn are eye-popping: He wins at a ridiculous 31% clip with horses making their first start in his barn. We do not think we are going to get the 3-1 morning line price on Conquest Flatterme, but we don't care: we're still picking her on top. The bet: Sunland Park Race 2, $25 to win on 4-Conquest Flatterme.

We'll throw in one quickie for Sunland: the 7th (Post time: 4:26 pm Eastern) is an allowance, a 5 1/2 furlong dirt sprint for New Mexico-bred fillies and mares 3 and up. There is an absolute standout here, and it is 5-Pink Sky. Her last race, when she won an allowance race by over 5 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 78, was nothing short of sensational. If she runs anywhere near that well today, she will win by daylight. We would make her a play, except that we think her 2-1 morning line odds are  either a mistake or a bad morning line. We will not make her an official pick, because we think she will be 2/5, and we do not pick horses to win at odds that short (at least not intentionally; sometimes our picks get bet down after our posts go up, and there is nothing we can do about that). But keep an eye on the tote; If she is even money or better, take the rubber band off the bankroll and pound her hard to win.

Now we turn to Turf Paradise in Phoenix, where there's an eight-race card. Race 5 (Post time: 4:17 pm Eastern) is a mile allowance/optional claimer for older horses on the turf. In a wide-open race with no clear-cut favorite, we like the outside horse, 9-Surprisinglyperfect. This 5-year-old gelding has a recent pattern of a good race followed by a bad race; today he's coming off a bad race, and we are expecting a good one today. He does have the best closing kick in the race, and we'll take him on top at 5-1. The bet: Turf Paradise Race 5, $10 to win on 9-Surprisinglyperfect.

Finally, for a nightcap, we'll turn to the featured race in Phoenix, Race 7 (Post time: 5:13 pm Eastern). This is a dirt mile allowance race for older horses. We like the 2-1 second choice on the morning line, 4-Gato Guapo. This horse has been running in stakes company on the grass, but now drops to an allowance race on dirt. The turf-to-dirt angle is one we've long liked, and we like that he seems to be better on dirt. And we like his trainer: Robertino Diodoro is winning at a 24% clip on the year, and an absurd 39% at the current Turf Paradise meeting. We think Gato Guapo stalks the pacesetters down the backstretch, takes the lead at the top of the far turn, and wins the race going away. The bet: Turf Paradise Race 7, $20 to win on 4-Gato Guapo.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.