Horse Racing: Garrity picks Florida and NOLA for dry, fast tracks
There is lots of good action for a Wednesday: Gulfstream, Tampa Bay, and the Fair Grounds are all big league tracks, and all are running today. Even better, it's supposed to be dry everywhere, so we can handicap with a pretty good expectation of fast and firm. Let's get right to it.
The 10th at Gulfstream (post time: 5:48 pm Eastern) is an allowance, a mile on dirt for 3-year-old fillies. There are six runners, but despite the relatively short field, it's an interesting race to handicap, as there are fillies coming from all directions, both geographically and in terms of racing. There are horses coming from claiming races, stakes races, and the favorite is making her first Florida start after a summer and fall campaign in Maryland.
We like the outside horse, 6-Dana Grace. She was consistent, and consistently improving, in her last three dirt races, and a repeat of her last here put her right there. She's trained by Kathy Ritvo, who's having a good meet at Gulfstream, and getting the outside post is an advantage in these one-turn miles. We will take her at 3-1, and we'll play her in the late double (see below for race 11 analysis). The bets: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $20 to win on 6-Dana Grace; $10 double, 6-Dana Grace with 3-Super Mama.
The 11th at Gulfstream (post time: 6:19 pm Eastern) is a $20,000 maiden claiming race for older fillies at a mile on turf. The race has a stickout: 3-Super Mama has burned some money in recent starts, finishing second as the favorite each time, but we think that she has been the victim of bad luck: She's run winning races in each of these, but ran into horses who just ran better. She's run the last quarter mile each time in under 24 seconds, and this is rare at this level, and is usually good enough to win. It just hasn't been for her.
But it will be today, as the rest of this field is weak. We will bet her as the second half of the late double, as above, and we will also bet her to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 11, $15 to win on 3-Super Mama.
At Tampa Bay Downs, there's a good 9-race card, filled with deep and competitive fields. The 3rd (post time: 2:06 pm Eastern) is a conditioned $5k claimer at 6 furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares 4 and up. We like 5-R Sweet Exchange: She has consistent, and consistently superior, speed figures; and we like that she can either set the pace or stalk it. These horses are not machines, but we are expecting a solid effort from her today, and that's enough for us to put her on top at 5/2. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 3, $15 to win on 5-R Sweet Exchange.
Race 8 (post time: 4:36 pm Eastern) is an allowance optional claimer for older females at a mile on the turf. We like a longshot here, and it's 1-Barrel of Destiny. She had a summer and fall campaign on the New York circuit, and did OK, but since being turned over to the Anthony Granitz barn at Tampa, she has quietly done some good work. Her last race was deceptively good, and we think that makes her a live contender. She gets the rail, which should give her a good trip, and we think that at 12-1, she's an overlay. We'll go for boxcars here. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, $25 to win on 1-Barrel of Destiny.
At the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the featured 8th race (post time: 4:53 pm Eastern) is a mile and a sixteenth turf allowance for 3-year-olds. There are some promising looking runners here, but we like 2-Tom Management. This horse has really done nothing wrong in two career starts, both on the grass: He broke his maiden in his first race, and he lost by a nose, finishing second, at this level and on this track a month ago. Breaking from the 2 hole, he should get a good trip, and we think the likely pace of the race -- there will be legitimate, but not insane, early fractions - will suit his mid-pack stalking running style. And we like his 4-1 odds. The bet: Fair Grounds, Race 8, $20 to win on 2-Tom Management.
That's it for today. Good luck at the windows.